A Very CAUTIOUS Buy Low Candidate: High Risk = High Reward!

Look it’s getting late into the season, just over a third of the games have been played, so we’re going to have to dig a little deeper for solid Buy Low guys. Don’t get me wrong, they’re out there, we just have to do some extra research. At this point the two best opportunities we’re going to get will be either players that have had a recent bad string of games, maybe even up to a month’s worth, or players coming off of injuries that (hopefully) aren’t bad and won’t cause any recurring issues. It’s this last group that I’m going to focus on today. Before I issue this call though, let me be clear that there is (obviously) some risk associated here. You want to be sure to factor that into any trade offers you make. But where there is risk, there is reward! And I really have a good feeling about this guy.

The day before the start of the 2009 NBA season, it was confirmed that Blake Griffin had a stress fracture in his knee. Specifically, it was a fractured left patella. Prior to this injury, Blake had been dominating all the way back to college and high school. In the last season he played at Oklahoma, Griffin finished with 30 double doubles. This was 1 short of the NCAA record set by none other than David Robinson. He also set a Big 12 record for most rebounds in a collegiate career. In one game, his best ever, he scored 40 points and pulled down 23 rebounds, no small feat even at that level. He was the college player of the year, averaging 22.7 points and 14.4 rebounds. Listed at 6’9” and 251 pounds, Blake can bang around with anyone in the NBA. In fact, in preseason he was averaging 13.7 points and 8.1 boards, again very solid numbers.

Then there’s the downside.

Blake injured his knee after a power dunk in his final preseason game. I’ve done some digging on this injury and am optimistic about what I read. A fracture in the patella takes about 6 weeks to heal, but the Clippers have sidelined Griffin for a bit longer to make sure that he heals properly and fully. That’s not the best news for current owners, but great news for prospective owners. Since he didn’t require surgery (a la Greg Oden) it’s not as serious of an injury, and importantly, he’s been able to keep weight on the knee which will help deter any muscle loss. Well this all sounds good, what’s the bad stuff? He also suffered a sprained MCL in his knee in 08, and tore cartilage in his other knee in 08, which required a scope. Total time missed for these two injuries? Three games…

So on the upside we have a rare talent that looks to be headed for a career as a double double machine. The player I most expect him to resemble is David Lee (who incidentally is also listed at 6’9” and 250 pounds). Now I realize that the Clippers already have two good bigs in Camby and Kaman, so initially one would expect that playing time will be limited. Have no fear, as we already expected, Marcus Camby is showing signs of injuries beginning to build and has already begun missing time. Expect the Clippers to slot Mr. Griffin right in. Of course, we also need to mention the Baron Davis factor. Everyone plays a little better with BD on the floor.

On the downside we grab a guy who has a somewhat history of knee troubles, though I can’t string any of them together, and he does seem to be able to tough stuff out. He’s young so should heal quicker too. With a third of the season gone, his injury risk concerns me a little less.

So it’s on you, care to make that gamble? Full disclosure here, I’ve already nabbed Mr. Griffin in my league, in a trade that cleared today. I sent John Salmons packing, and that’s about the best player I’d offer to get him if I were you. After holding him for so long, it’s likely his owner is ready to deal easily. The good thing about the timing of this call is that Blake is slated to come back around January 15th. That gives you roughly a week to close the deal, and another couple days for it to process, and voila! He’ll be on your team just as he’s back in the lineup.

Good luck working those deals. My suggestion is to try and get him as a ‘throw in’ for a 2-2 offer. Blake could have a serious impact on your team!