Playing For More Than First Place

We’re gonna take a little detour today and talk about a peripheral part of just about every Fantasy Sports league, the side bet. Now let me just start this out by saying I am in no way condoning or advocating illegal gambling. Just incase there’s any lawyers out there trying to catch me in a loop!

But for me, the side bets are almost as important as the league itself (and in some cases, way more important). Now I realize that not all of you are able to engage in bets within your league. Whether it be because you don’t know everyone that well, or it’s against your religion, or whatever. Take heed, even still this post will provide some insight into the thought process of The Thief.  

Most (if not all) of us play in a Fantasy Sports league where we pay an entry fee to join and the winner gets a payout at the end. This actually isn’t illegal as George Bush passed a law in 2006 that said quite specifically, playing fantasy sports for money isn’t the same as gambling. It’s a game of skill not a game of chance. Booyah. So you’ve already got money tied up in the league, and you’ve got something to shoot for. The ultimate goal is to win the first place trophy and prize money, but if you miss, you want to be sure you still ‘played for free’ no matter how that dough came in (whether it be through a side bet or through taking second or third or whatever).

For obvious, and legal, reasons, I can’t sit here and advise you on bets. That’d be pretty dumb of me anyways. But what I can do is let you in on some of the wagers I’ve placed, my thoughts and insight into each of them, and then let you make the decisions for yourself. Before we get into descriptions, a couple points of note: 1> don’t put yourself out on a limb. The total amount of all wagers (in monopoly money of course!) should not exceed 1.5 times what you paid to enter. So if your league costs 100 to play, your total bets shouldn’t exceed 150, else you’re putting yourself out on a limb. 2> Structure the bets to give yourself an edge; you’ll see what I mean below. 3> PayPal and Revolution Money are great ways to make and pay off bets when you can’t physically meet the person.

1. Making a Bold Call

This is actually the worst kind of bet to make, and I have to admit my ego gets the best of me and I often lay one down. In this scenario, you’re generally going out on a limb to show off how intuitive you are about sports in general, and many times the wager comes as someone tells you to put your money where your mouth is. One example came last NBA season, just before the playoffs, and I was hugely bullish on the Orlando Magic. I was telling everyone that I felt like the Magic were going to ‘win it all’. If you recall, they were definitely heavy underdogs to win it all, and even underdogs to win the East. One of the guys I play with challenged me on it, offering me 2-1 odds on the bet and I had to take it to prove my knowledge. Well, you know the story; they really looked great and made me look like a genius all the way up to the Lakers. In the end, people gave me kudos for a great call, but I lost the bet. Moral here, be careful on betting on bold calls, it just isn’t worth it.

But I still do. This season I wagered with a buddy preseason NFL that the Giants would finish 8-8 or worse. Though I sweated through the first 6 weeks, it proved right, and I cashed in. Still, the odds are against me and I only did it to look smart. Gotta be more careful with that.

2. Playing Your Buddy’s Ego

My favorite and easily the one you’ll most often win. Ever play in a league where after the first month of play the guy in first with a big league starts spouting off how perfect his team is? He constantly hits the message board with posts about how wrapped up the league is and how bored he is of the competition? Me too, and that’s where I strike. “Hey bro, 2-1 odds say you won’t finish in first place”. It works every time, and the odds are so slanted in your favor it’s ridiculous. He knows this too, but his choices are to either A> back down from posting or B> make the wager. 9 out of 10 times he’ll make the wager rather than face the ole ‘not so confident anymore eh?’. Make sure you structure the payoff to a place he’s comfortable with, makes the acceptance more likely. Nailed a guy on this last year, and although I didn’t win the league, I ended up taking home more than enough to pay for my entry. BE CAREFUL, if you play with shady characters, they might try to make shady trades to screw you on the bet. This doesn’t happen in my league and shouldn’t happen in yours.

3. Jockeying Your Position

This final wager has to do with your historical record, your counterpart’s historical record, and them being ahead of you in the standings. Remember, guys go on streaks and your position in the league changes often. I’ve got a couple guys in my league that are just perennial losers, but every season, without doubt, there’s a moment where they think ‘this is my chance!’. 12 team league, you’re in 7^th, they’re in 3^rd. You look over the rosters of your squad and their squad, and you know it won’t last. This guy loses every season; somehow he always finds a way. He might not finish last, but he definitely doesn’t finish above you. You get into a discussion ‘Hey man, you’re crazy, your team isn’t that good’. Sometimes it even comes right after the draft, he says - ‘WOW I definitely had the best draft of anybody!’. Perfect, we know you’re better, time to cash in on it. ‘I’ll bet you (blank) that I finish higher in the standings than you’. Works every time.

Sometimes winning isn’t just about bringing home the trophy. But it’s always about being declared the winner. I’ll do my best to keep you all in the loop for any future wagers I make. I just paid one off this morning, made a preseason bet that the NJ Nets would make the playoffs this year (yeah I’m calling defeat here). Stupid Bold Calls!!