I've been sounding off for quite a while now about the need for people to deal away Danny Granger. It's such a huge blow in any fantasy sport to lose your top player. But it isn't the end of the world, or even the end of your season. It's all about what you do the moment you find out he is injured that matters most. To illustrate my lines of thinking, I'll contrast the two major injuries of Danny Granger and Kevin Martin.
For starters, let's define the difference between injured and hurt. Hurt, is when a guy is out anywhere from a game to 3 weeks. Especially when the injury is not something that could linger (say knee contusion) and won't change his game. Conversely, injured is when they'll be out longer than 3 weeks, and it is imperative that we do a little digging and figure out what the injury is and what to expect during recovery.
Danny Granger and Kevin Martin both went down in November. Both were playing well up to the point of injury, both are expected out about the same amount of time. Now instantly, when one of these guys goes down, no matter what, I'm trying to work a deal. If a guy is going to be out for nearly 2 months, you're going to lose huge production from him. Drop down one Tier and start making offers. For Danny G, if I could've landed anyone like Brandon Roy, Al Jeff, or Tim Duncan, even if i gotta toss in some marginal Channing Frye type player, I'm pulling the trigger. I'm working these deals every day for the entire first week.
Why? Because the stats I lose from my player will be huge. Going from Danny G to a bench player is a BIG drop off. Going from Danny G to a Tier two player keeps you in the race. But truth be told, you'd have been lucky as anything to land one of these deals. If someone made you an offer like this and you said no, you're an idiot, nuff said.
Fast forward say three weeks and now we're into the thick of the injury time off and the reports start coming out. Take notice of what they say, google the injury. For contrast, Kevin Martin fractured his wrist in a game. The next night he went out, fractured wrist and all, dropped 29 points and snagged 11 boards. I have the utmost confidence that when he returns, I will get back the same player.
On the flip side, Danny Granger has a torn right plantar fascia. It was discovered some time late in preseason, he talked about trying to play through it but couldn't and eventually got shelved. Google the injury (or just click on the link I placed), cause it's not obvious what it entails. For those of you familiar with baseball, this is what Carlos Quentin had. Quentin is a stud OF for the ChiSox, who spent 70% of the season on the DL this year, and when he finally came back, he was NOT the same.
Thus, I do NOT feel comfortable with Danny Granger's status. Now you need to weigh the risk/reward properties and start hitting the trade block. Do I think you should deal Danny G for a pack of smokes and Marquis Daniels? NO. Do I think you should deal him straight up for Stephen Jackson, NO. But if you can get a Tier Two or Tier Three player in return for Danny, yeah you gotta knock it down. One of our readers Pavel is working a 2-2 deal, where he sends Granger and Aldridge for Amare and Kevin Martin. THAT's the type of deal you need to knock down.
If I'm right, you just dealt away a major headache, AND severely damaged an opponents team. You're still in the game. If I'm wrong, then you're left with Amare and Kevin Martin....a small price to pay for shedding that risk.
36 comments:
Do you like this deal? Bosh, Monta, and Iverson for Durant, Gay, and Westbrook
Good post thief i like the distinction between injured and hurt! My team is struggling right now and I've tried to make blockbuster trades but no one is biting. So now I'm starting to work minor trades. With that in mind, I am trying to shop Marion anywhich way possible. Okur owner rejected the trade. Should I try Marion for Artest? Mind you I have Udrih that I can package along in any deal as well. This is a Roto 13GMs, 12 cat league. I also sent out Kidd+Marion+Udrih for D.Will to see if it has a chance in sticking.
Hi, I was just wondering...Kevin Martin is on the waviers right now. Would it be beneficial to pick him up and stash him until he is able to play? They say he will be back Early January. Would it be worth it if i missed a couple games?
Prybilla went down and i picked up Jwan howard. Was that a good pick up??
10 team h2h
any suggestions with my team?
i read tmacs minutes arent going to go up anytime soon, and its startin to get annoying. should i jus hold him though?
what kinda trades should i be sending out, or any moves i should make?
FA: tyrus, conley, barbosa,courtny lee, AI, morrow, g hill, illysova, be wallace
d harris
westbrook
joe johnson
ariza
redd
lou williams
t mac
josh smith
jeff green
t murphy
d west
brand
haywood
Sauce:
threes .84
points 15.11
bounds 6.07
steals 1.19
blocks .84
Y4, long time no see lol, yeah I like it fo sho
Intro, like the Dwill deal, not artest tho
Ian, you play H2H? Tuff call, sucks that yahoo doesn't have an IR slot. It depends a lot on who you're dropping, but yeah I'd grab him.
Vlado, Juwan just had his 112th birthday, is hibbert available?
LA, try workin TMac n Redd in a 2-1 deal. Maybe J-Rich? Maybe Mayo even?
Hey Thief, nice post! I completely agree with you about extent of injuries, and that many ppl aren't aware of it. Then again your the master of the art of thieving!
I have a question about a potential move if I should make. Here are my numbers:
Points: 15.35
Assists: 3.25
Boards: 5.78
Treys: .97
Steals: .98
Blocks: .65
I was thinking of dropping Casspi and picking up Juwan Howard. Casspi played ~17minutes and had a 4 pts his last game.
Howard had a double-double and as long as no trades take place in Portland, I feel that Juwan will be productive (as long as his age doesn't overtake him)
On other news I have Zach Randolph and tried to sell him for David Lee like you suggested, lol. No luck, but I hope Randolph has good trainers over in Memphis.
P.S. Roy Hibbert is being sufficiently productive! Even though he had a 6pt game, he made it up with a 6blk game against the Celtics haha.
10 team h2h
PG: Chris Paul, Devin Harris, Jose Calderon
PG/SG: Lou Williams
SG: OJ Mayo
SG/SF: Jason Richardson
SF/PF: Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, Thaddeus Young
PF/C:Brook Lopez, Andrea Barnagni, Joakim Noah, Luis Scola
any opinions/suggestions on team??
sauce:
threes .82
points 16.18
bounds 6.02
dimes 3.58
steals 1.17
blocks .77
Haha, thanks thief!
I hope you werent upset at all my posts and thus decided to dedicate one so i could shut up. This might as well have been written as Pavel's dilemma or something. I see what you mean now. I've sent some trade offers to other teams that are more thievin, and if they fail, lamarcus/granger for martin/amare is what ima do. Thanks for all your work, I really appreciate it.
Wit kmart now shootin around before games and said to be 2 weeks away from returning i was thinkin of tryna to make a deal for him...
the guy that owns him also has rajon rondo who id love to have for fg percentage and asts..
what wld u think bout offering ben gordon, westbrook and sjax for kev martin and rondo...
the guy who owns him is a pistons fan and is a big name type of guy...the other players that are moveable i ahve are lou williams, gallanari, cfrye, and speights(who im using as a waiver fill-in...
is this smart?
im trying to clear up a space for beindrins which is why i wld love to do a 3 for 2 or 2 for 1....
Akur, you can find better than juwon, can't you?
Mamba, try to move calderon for Troy Murphy or bargs.
Pavel, ayooooo! Not upset at all, it's a BIG decision and just about everyone falls in love with their top pick. I'm glad I could use you as an example, a perfect thievin deal you got there. Well done
well actually, i have barnagni lol
Clint, love that offer. Don't be afraid to try a 4-2 and add in speights to ink it.
mambo, my bad, try for Murphy then
Sup thief my one team has
Deron Williams
Michael Redd
Paul Pierce
Mehmet Okur
Joakim Noah-21 rebounds!
Pau Gasol
Luol Deng
Mo Williams
Larry Hughes
Kendrick Perkins
Jason Kidd
Stephen Jackson
John Salmons
Who do I drop for Kevin Martin?
Sauce is
Points- 14.29
Blocks- .73
Steals- 1.05
Assits- 3.88
Rebounds- 6.45
3pms- .96
Kirlenko is on WW too.
i kinda need a center and i have 5 PG they are harris, CP3, Jennings, Tyreke and Barea. i want to make a deal to land K.Love.
Do u think i should offer Harris for Love
Al, prolly Hughes, and start workin the 2-1 offers!
Vlado, him or reke, but just know ur buyin k love when he's hot, payin up on it. But yeah Harris or reke
Hey thief,
So I finally got one of my offers accepted: I gave up D.Lee for Gerald Wallace
Didnt change my sauce numbers too much, but i got a tier two upgrade so works for me.
Sauce:
Pts: 14.67
3’s: 0.76
Boards: 6.53
Assists: 3.31
Steal: 1.12
Blocks: 0.727
I still need blocks 3's and points, and can give up some steals now.
My team again: CP3, calderon, iggy, redd, marion, harrington, horford, haywood, biedrins, J O'Neal, GWall, dunleavy (who hopefully will soon be ginobli, find out tmrw, but unlikely due to waiver number), Griffin.
I was thinking of trying to go after Kevin martin, the team hes on is doin really well tho:
Kevin Martin, Danny Granger, Harris, bynum, chalmers, kaman, boozer, duncan, randolph, deng, felton, eric gordon and rondo.
Have any tips to go after him, or should i get someone else. I was gonna try to do a 3 for 2 maybe and then pickup hibbert.
I would use either redd, Marion or both.
I know that Grandger has a huge injury, but i don't know how much would be right for trading him. Would you pull a trigger on this: Granger and D west for carmelo.
Team:
K durant
J Salmons
D West
K love
J Kidd
S.Marion
L.Odom
J.Noah
C.Duhon
M.Okur
A Morrow
D.Granger
My Sauce:
points: 15.05
blocks:0.82
steals:1.06
asist:4.01
reb:6.73
3 point:0.83
its yo boy,
so the trade for action jackson/nene/bynum for my shaq/speights/ak47/baron davis got accepted
this is whatsup:
Saucy #'s
pts: 16.66
3's: .94
Rebs: 6.72
Asts: 3.4
Stls: 1.13
Blks: .75
Team:
Starting Lineup:
Guards: Cp3, Stephen Jackson, Jameer Nelson, Caron Butler
Forwards: Jrich, Antwan Jamison
Center: Pau Gasol, Nene, Bargnani, Bynum
Bench:
Mike Dunleavy
Manu Ginobli
Blake Griffin
whats next chief?
p.s. is jrich realy valued more than caron. i mean i know jrich isnt bad, but on the i dont really follow the suns and i tend to think he is overvalued, no?
How bout granger n Marion first.
Thief,
With Pryzbilla now out for a period of time, who do you think will replace him on Portland as the guy who gets rebounds and blocks? Who is worth picking up?
Thanks
Pavel, try moving nene for Amare or duncan. Feel free to add in a bench player too. And J-Rich is a roto stud.
Mike, not sure yet, I'll Twitter it once I hear. No way they roll with just juwon.
Hey Thief what do you recommend I offer for Kmart? My team can use a reliable scorer. My league is a Roto Keeper league, where we keep 3 players at the end. So far I have Wade, Rondo, Bargnani. Since KMart is injured should I try to offer Bargnani strait up for him? or do you think I'll need more ie. throw in Udrih? thanks
Roto, KEEP 3 players, 13GMs
12 cats (FGM, FG%, FTM, FT%, 3PTM, 3PT%, PTS, REB, AST, BLK, ST, TO)
PG) Jason Kidd
SG) Dwayne Wade
G) Rajon Rondo
SF) John Salmons
PF) Charlie Villanueva
F) Michael Beasley
C) Andrea Bargnani
C) Chris Kaman
Util) Beno Udrih
Util) Jameer Nelson
Bench) Shawn Marion
Bench) Brendan Haywood
Bench) Andray Blatche
Intro, try Marion n udrih, we be thievin here, not givin out good deals.
He thief its Danny!, this guy offered me Boozer,David West and Manu Ganobli for Pau Gasol, ray allen,and marresse speights. should i accept??
Thanks Thief - this guy is playing hard to get though he declined. I'll try Charlie+Marion but I have a feeling he'll decline that as well. Is there another recomendation you have or should I just stay away from Kmart right now cause he seems like he might be asking for much!
Yo thief! It's We Fly High again, and I'm still working on that one kobe trade. It has come down to this:
I give: Amare, Speights, Salmons
I get: Kobe, Iverson, and Barbosa.
I could get robinson/ w. bynum probably instead of barbosa. But in either case..is it a good deal? Or am I giving up too much for kobe?
Danny, INK IT BRO, nice knockdown there. Even though you are giving up Gasol, I think Manu and Ray Ray are about even, and thus you get Speights and Gasol for Boozer and West, nice value. I'd look to move Boozer soon after though, for a Tier one. Maybe Amare?
Intro, don't over offer. He knows your down, let him come to you if he's motivated to deal.
WeFly, I like this deal a lot, if you're lookin to grab Kobe (get Points, give up Boards). By seasons end, Salmons and Barbosa should be fairly even. INK IT BRO!
Aight thanks bro. Inked it =]
should i trade durant beidrins and udrih for granger david lee and rose?
Luke, if you read this post, and still want Danny g. Go for it buddy.
Hey Thief got a question for you. An active owner in my league is looking for a trade. He sent me his J.R. Smith for my Corey Maggette.
Also on his trading block are: Russell Westbrook, Aaron Brooks, Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson
I can use a bit of a boost in 3s. Do you have any suggestion for a trade to offer, I don't mind shaking up my team, I don't think he minds either.
thanks again
MY TEAM:
PG) Deron Williams
SG) Raymond Felton
G) Tony Parker
SF) Corey Maggette
PF) David West
F) Jason Thompson
C) Andrea Bargnani
C) Chris Bosh
Util) Louis Williams
Util) Stephen Jackson
BN) Wilson Chandler
BN) Brendan Haywood
BN) Yi Jianlian
HIS TEAM:
PG) Russell Westbrook
SG) Joe Johnson
G) Aaron Brooks
SF) J.R. Smith
PF) Jeff Green
F) Kenyon Martin
C) Brook Lopez
C) Dwight Howard
Util) Jason Terry
Util) Jason Kidd
BN) Roy Hibbert
BN) Allen Iverson
BN) Tyrus Thomas
Intro, try Haywood n maggette for Terry n JR.
thanks thief just sent that counter! I like that, and don't mind loosing Haywood especially now that Jason Thompson got his C status I can put him in there if needed! We'll see what he says. I like your Roto studs post I'm going to try and make a pitch for a few of those guys, especially Jamison, I'm a huge fan!
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