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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

An Oldy But Goodie

My boy Paz shot me over an email today, he said 'Hey, you should go over how you pull off a trade with these guys on your blog'. Paz plays with me in every league, so he's got some experience with my style. 'You know, the whole posting, emailing, relentless offers, etc. It kills me, I totally know from your posts your about to snake someone into a big deal. Share that knowledge!'. This coming from an opponent mind you. Anyway, I informed him that I had already done that two weeks ago, BUT, for all the new readers as well as the originals that need some brushing up, here it is again. This time I've added in a few message board posts from my league to give you ideas.

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It’s fairly easy to eye out the players on your own squad that are ripe to sell high, and equally easy to eye out players on other teams that you’re looking to either buy low, or just need to add to your squad. However actual execution is a whole other level of play. Readers have been asking me lately, how do I convince people to make a deal with me that when that deal is lopsided in my favor? This is an important question indeed! Let’s run through the five steps of proper Thievin.

1. Effort
First things first, If you’re just shooting out an offer to an opponent with no communication, then it’s most likely you’ll receive a rejection. Particularly if you’re lookin to thieve. Why? Because the guy you just shot a trade offer to is going to think as he opens the email ‘Oh god, here comes and offer, this dood is trying to screw me’. 90% of the people who play any fantasy sport have this approach, zero trust. There are many reasons for this, but the biggest one is EGO. They don’t want to be the guy who made the stupid deal and gets heckled for the rest of the season. Put some effort into your offers. Find those categories your target is down in, whether he is losing them in H2H matches or just has a low score in roto. Use the comments section of a trade offer to TELL the target exactly what he is gaining by making this trade with you.

Here's an example of getting people riled up. Posted this just before I landed Gerald Wallace for Mike Miller. The idea here was to motivate through insult:

Idiot Complaceny
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 350 Dec 2 6:52pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

It makes no sense to me whatsoever how you people can just sit back and watch your team go down the drain. This game is about numbers and it is MORE THAN OBVIOUS what you are lacking and how it can be fixed. Trading ain't rocket science, it's merely an agreement where you get what you need and I get what I need.

If you're content with the notion that it's possible to win simply by drafting, then you are a moron, best of luck to ya. But if you want to actually PLAY fantasy sports, as opposed to watching it, hit me up and let's make a deal.



2. Massage the Numbers
Sure, you TELL the target that this deal is good for them, but you also need to SHOW your target this deal is good for them. How do you do that? You use whatever numbers you can possibly get to back your case. Say, for instance, the target is in need of treys and steals. Look at the players you are offering versus the one you get back, how can we force these numbers to show that he is indeed making a benefit of treys and steals? Maybe we add up the total for each guy this year, and use those figures. Maybe we add up the averages and use those numbers. Maybe we use their 2008 numbers. Whatever it takes, whichever is the most convincing, go with it. Two tips here: if you are offering a 2-1, be sure to add up the stats for both of your guys vs. their one guy. Many people won’t realize they will be benching one player, so won’t notice the difference. Also, if a player has been injured, and hasn’t played much or missed time, their average numbers can be wildly skewed in your favor. If a guy missed the whole season up to now, and has played two games, scoring 25 and 30 points in those games, well then tell your target he averages 27.5 points a game!

Posted this about an hour before I landed a deal sending Courtney Lee for John Salmons:

HI! NEED THREE's, WILL DEAL STEALS!!
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 355 Dec 11 8:59pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

Looking for a three point shooter (1.5+ treys/gm), preferably one with a FG% north of 44%, and one that chips in a good 3+ assists, averages around 15+ points a game.

I can offer a guy that averages 2+ steals per game. In fact, he's currently tied for 5th in the league overall for steals. He won't hurt you in any of the other categories either.

Hit me up if you have someone in mind.


3. Create a Sense of Competition
People look for confirmation from other people. They are more inclined to want a player they believe other people want. So, after you make your offer, pop onto your message board and post ‘Trade Offers’ then proceed to tell people that you’ve fielded a couple of offers for such and such player and you’re deciding between a few. This will give your target a sense of urgency and fear that he is losing out on a deal someone else might get.

Put this post up to drum up interest for Thompson. Within the hour my offer of Thompson for Butler was accepted:

On the Block: Jason Thompson
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 355 Dec 3 4:17pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

Some of you had never heard of Jason Thompson before this season, this post is not intended for you. To everyone else, as you might've gathered I'm intent on moving Thompson, preferably for steals. I've got some offers that I'm working through, I'll try and decide in the next couple days. Meanwhile if you are interested, shoot me an email sooooooooon!


4. Let Them Think They Won
People prefer to be the one making the offer that finally gets accepted, versus accepting someone else’s offer. It’s a control and ego thing. While it may not always be possible, if you get into a series of counter proposals, don’t be afraid to take one they send you. First off it insures that a deal gets done before they leave in frustration, and secondly they’ll be more likely to have a good feeling about the trade.

5. Promotion Promotion Promotion
Once you ink the deal, get on that message board immediately and put up a glorious post. Title it, NICE TRADE, and say what a pleasure it was to ink a deal with so and so, and that you look forward to future deals, and that you really think the deal will be a big benefit to both teams. You know what this does? It let’s everyone know that you trade, and that it’s OK to trade with you. Moreover they’ll be a little jealous because they weren’t involved in this fun aspect of fantasy sports, so they’ll instantly start trying to make a deal. Guess who they’re gonna go to for that deal?

Here's an example after I dealt Arenas:

HOUSTON WE HAVE A TRADE!
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 312 Nov 30 10:11pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

Nice deal Mikey, enjoy Agent Zero aka Hibachi, he's an exciting player.



Take the time to do it right, be patient for the right deal to show itself, and execute!


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These were just some examples, limited to the posts I could still access. As you might have noticed, we play with a very active message board. Currently at 403 posts. That's all me, I work to keep the dialogue going, and probably account for over 25% of the posts. I want everyone to know who I am, and to know that if they wanna deal, they need to come to me first.

Have a Merry Christmas everyone. I'll have the IPhone on me all night so feel free to drop a line as usual.

27 comments:

WeFlyHigh said...

Yo thief! It's We Fly High again, and I'm still working on that one kobe trade. It has come down to this:

I give: Amare, Speights, Salmons
I get: Kobe, Iverson, and Barbosa.

I could get robinson/ w. bynum probably instead of barbosa. But in either case..is it a good deal? Or am I giving up too much for kobe?

sennett0r said...

Well, The guy who owns Gilbert Arenas emailed everybody telling them to veto the trade where he gets Paul Pierce. He was the first to know about Paul Pierce's knee injury. Another guy in my league told everybody not to veto it because the one giving up Arenas is in first place and 2nd place is 5-6 games behind. This trade going through meant everybody else would have a chance at gaining on him.

Unfortunately for me, and the rest of the league, the trade did get veto'ed.

What should I do with Paul Pierce?

I was considering dropping him for Josh Howard. Will Pierce come back strong from the injury?

neel said...

Yo thief,

Its me again. This post was awesome. I used some of the tactics already so well see. I had a question for a different league. 12 team H2H deep rosters.

My sauce:
Pts: 15.6
3 pt: 1.14
Reobunds: 5.875
Assist: 2.58
Steal: 1.29
Block: 0.64

First, let me know if this trade is good. I give Dirk, Baron (possibly Iggy if he hinges the deal on that), Hughes, and Chandler for Tony Parker, Lebron, and Jeff Green. I would pick up harden, or some pure blocker (ww pretty empty).

If not, is there someone that does blocks and assists that I should be shooting for?

Thief said...

Gerry, good lookin out bro

Thief said...

FlyHigh, Nice deal bro

Senn, it's an infection, read that as he is hurt, not injured. DO NOT DROP HIM

Neel, I like your offer but do NOT add Iggy. And if you can, go for Hibbert

Gerardo said...

Hey thief,

We tease those owners that don't like to trade by saying they are happily married to their players. I can't stand them, but eventually they come around and agree to deal. Patience is the key to a good deal.

Senn - hang on to Pierce. He did not suffered a severe injury, thus 2 wks is not that bad. Rather than dropping him for Howard, try a 2-1 and then grab Howard from the ww

sennett0r said...

hehe, well, looks like I can't drop him even if I wanted to...

I've sent out emails to the other managers in my league telling them what categories I struggle in and to make some offers that can help both of us out. Let's see if I get some decent offers...

Chattabox919 said...

thief, i got an issue. I have two offers for troy murphy and Lou williams. You already know one of them. My sauce with the team i have now is

1.1 threes trading for Charlie V, .9 threes
16.5 ppg and Brendan Haywood --> 16 ppg
6.6 rpg 6.9 rpg
4.1 apg 3.6 apg
1.1 spg 1.04 spg
.5 bpg .74 bpg

trading for jamal Crawford and andrew Bynum, my sauce is:
1 three
16.7 ppg
6.4 rpg
3.9 apg
1.07 spg
.63 bpg

Do you think its worth dropping in some categories to even out, or should i keep my team and suffer in my one weak category(blocks)

I already countered the Crawford/Murphy trade to be Iguodala and Bynum for Stephen Jackson, Murphy and Lou Williams( With Salmons as my pick up). Is that better? I hope you will take the time to read my strangely organized comment post

sennett0r said...

I'm weak in boards, assists, and slightly weak in steals and blocks. I'm .01 over the sauce on 3s and a good 1 point over the sauce on points.

Guy wants to trade Troy Murphy for Jason Kidd. I told him no because JKidd is my leading assist guy as well as a decent chunk of my 3s and steals.

I told him to make it a 2-2 trade and throw in an assist guy..

He has Joe Johnson, V.Carter, B.Jennings, J. Green, A.Bogut, A.Horford, A.Stoudamire, M.Okur, J.Noah, R.Allen, OJ.Mayo, D.Granger, T.Murphy..

Who should I counter offer

Homegrown said...

hey thief - could use your take on this weird offer I just got:

an owner sent me his: Sjax+Speights+Varejao
for my: Salmons+Beasley+Udrih

any thoughts?

I just countered with this:

my: Salmons+CharlieV+Udrih
for his: Sjax+T.Young+Speights

I'm torn between Charlie and Beasley. Who should I look to deal out of those 2?

Gerardo said...

Hey thief, let me know what you think of this potential deal. 10 team, H2H, 8 cat. 9 starters, 3 bench, 1 IR.

My team
CP3
E. Gordon
Iggy
P. Gasol
T. Murphy
Billups
L. Aldrige
Okafor
Bogut

Bench:
Peja, Kenyon Martin (1 game pick up) & Sammy D

IR: Tyrus Thomas

Current sauce #'s
PTS: 16.54
AST: 3.98
REB: 7.3
3's: 0.94 (below)
STL: 1.12
BLK: 0.84

Potential deal:
CP3 & Sammy D (picked up from ww today) for
S. Nash & K. Love

New sauce

PTS: 16.06
AST: 4.06
REB: 7.75
3's: 1.04
STL: 1.11
BLK: 0.86

I will maintain L. Aldridge, A. Bogut & Peja in my bench. I will try to move Bogut for someone else shortly. Your thoughts?

Thief said...

Chatta, Charlie v n Haywood, easy call

Senn, jenning fo sho

intro, I don't like any of those deals. Beasley hasn't peaked yet

Homegrown said...

thanks Theif what if I just send back:

my: Salmons+Udrih
for: Sjax+Speights

Thief said...

Gerry, NO dealing CP3. Please read my post 'how good is CP3'

Intro, perfect!

y4rivera said...

What's up Thief, I'm back again with another trade question. I'm trying to move Bosh assuming he is still a sell high. Do you think Bosh for D.Howard and Josh Smith is a good offer? Would it even be considered or would I have to throw someone like Al Horford or Rashard Lewis in? If not that any other ideas on who I could target with Bosh?

Gerardo said...

Damn thief, read that post on CP3. Those stats seem surreal, even with Ronnie Turiaf. Even though is a longshot, I'll make a push for LBJ sending A. Bogut, L. Aldridge and a ww. Let's see if he bites lol

Alfone said...

y4 one owner traded me Nash, Stephen Jackson and Stoudemire for Bosh like 2 weeks ago it was amazing.

Thief said...

Y4, try bosh n horford.

Gerry, Thiefs got you covered bro.

Al, straight thievin right there.

Thief said...

You guys will love this, just got this email re: my butler for J-Rich deal, check it out:

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Hey Gabadoo,

You have just been sent the following note from Fogidaboudit () in the Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball league named Gabbaball (149335)...

so wait a sec...you lose all those to's AND gain all those 3pm and he gained what?

i mean what the f*ck could you possibly say to convince someone to make this trade? what could he possibly gain by this? i am just confused as what bullsh1t you spewed to grab j-freaking-rich for butler. jrich is a money fantasy guy and butler is okay but doesnt offer what jrich does. i know you must have used the turnover angle and that is so, so weak.

weak mark. weak. garbage. way to pull that off though. you may have just locked up the season.

ohh, and nelson is back and i am making my move in the next few weeks so i will see you at the top in a few biaaatch
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That's why they call me The Thief

y4rivera said...

Do you think Tony Parker is a buy low right now?

Carlo said...

hey thief,

i was offered joe johnson and danny granger for my danny granger and jameer nelson. what you think?

PTS:17.92
REBS:7.52
AST:3.55
3PT:1.45
STL:1.28
BLK:1.12

Christomir said...

Merry Christmas, Thief ^_^

LOL, see what J.R. Smith did tonight?! And you were telling me to sell him or throw him as "filler" into a trade :P Now you see why I want to hold on to him till he has a few crazy nights like that and ONLY THEN let him go - I'll surely get more value for him then... I've learned it from you, Thief ;)

As for Okafor, I decided not to go after him, as he will ruin my FT%. But your other "CP3 sidekick" recommendation - David West - is a different matter, as he's a much better FT shooter. I've now offered a 2-2 deal, which is effectively a 2-1:
Yi Jianlian (had a huge shooting game first night back) + Jeff Green for David West + Tyson Chandler. If it's accepted, I'll immediately drop Chandler and pick up Blake Griffin or Roy Hibbert, who are still FAs. What do you think?

Here's yet again my good ol' Sauce, from a few days back, when I still had Dunleavy instead of Yi Jianlian (I only picked up Yi tonight to use him as trade bait LOL)... Also, J.R.'s heroics have probably now boosted my PTS and 3PTM, while K.Love's should mean a higher REB level now:

Points: 16.15
Assists: 3.96
Boards: 5.60
Treys: 1.32
Steals: 1.16
Blocks: .62

(I promise I'll recalculate it soon - I just can't be bothered now, since it's almost 10.00 AM here and I haven't slept yet LOL)

Thief said...

Y4, I'm not a fan of Parker, low assists and no treys. But if u like him, yeah it's a good time to buy.

Carlo, reread that, typo?

Christo, all sounds great to me bro. JR is very inconsistent, one of the most frustrating guys to own. I love those trade offers u made.

Scola said...

How do you think A.Bynum
I give Perkins and Yi,I get Bynum

Is it a ok deal?
I was afraid that he will hurt again

dw said...

Hey Thief,

I liked #1 Effort, you really called everyone out with that one, props!

The owner w/ Salmons apparently has high FG% w/ KG and Pau on the squad now, so he wants to keep the Bull for the steals and the 3s, tho he said he might be game to do Al Jefferson for Boozer straight up. Your recent post about selling Boozer high got me worried, especially after that poor game (stats-wise) last night. In addition, that guy who wouldn't give up Lee for Wade all of a sudden offers Lee for Boozer straight up... I don't know if he's trying to sell high b/c of that big game Lee had the other night? Or if he has some trick up his sleeve, I don't know... I don't know if either of those trades, Boozer for Jefferson or Lee would be considered "steals" as I was hoping for G.Wallace but that guy just hasn't responded to my proposal/email for days now and the last time that happened w/ E.Gordon, it got rejected. What do you think about my options for Boozer?

Thief said...

Scola, love it.

Big Al Jefferson, ink it.

Christomir said...

You mean "offer", not "offers" - it's only one and I only have any hopes for this one (Yi J. + J.Green for D.West + T.Chandler) to go through, fingers crossed. A couple of the other managers are awfully inactive and some of my trade offers even get timed out after staying up there for 10 days :( Most of the others are too much in love with their players, including that female manager (she snubbed the T.Evans/A.Jamison deal without even saying anything, although she had told me she liked Reke very much)... Another had the nerve to tell me he would only consider selling players like Brook Lopez and Eric Gordon if I put LeBron on the table...LOL

In fact, the owner of David West told me that he had just about given up on our league this season, because of too many injuries, but I talked to him on Skype and told him he should at least look at the offer and accept it, if he thought it was fair - even if it doesn't matter for him, it does for me...

As for J.R., trading him is a future project - I'll grit my teeth and wait for at least a couple more games of multiple treys, before cashing in :P

So you think dropping Chandler for Griffin or Hibbert is a good idea too? I'm thinking Hibbert first in order to get some blocks and then drop him for Griffin later... What worries me is that if someone else snatches Griffin in the meantime, I'll regret my greediness for blocks.LOL If even my current trade offer gets rejected, who do you think I should eventually drop to hopefully get Griffin?

My team (ten team roto league):

PG - Jason Kidd
SG - Tyreke Evans
G - Derrick Rose
SF - LeBron James
PF - Yi Jianlian
F - Jeff Green
C - Marc Gasol
C - Kevin Love
Util - Stephen Curry
Util - Andrea Bargnani
Util - J.R. Smith
Util - Brandon Jennings
Util - Danilo Gallinari