Who Gets The Ball In Milwaukee?

I’m sounding the alarm, officially, on a very speculative add. Michael Redd is done for the season, minutes are opening up in Milwaukee and more importantly points are opening up. I think the speculative adds here, and let me emphasize the word: speculative, are Hakim Warrick and Luke Ridnour. Chances are fairly high that they’re both available on your FA wire right now. Before we get into the numbers, these are the kinds of guys you add only if you’re already asking yourself, who should I add from the FA wire so I can dump so and so. You do not want to add these guys if the question you’re asking yourself is: who should I drop to get one. Ya feel me? Ok, numbers time.

First up: Hakim Warrick – F – Milwaukee Bucks

There’s really two Hakim Warricks, there’s the Hakim when he plays 30 minutes a game, and the Hakim when he plays less. Some players just need to be on the court, to get a feel for the game, to get sufficiently warmed up before they go on a little run and grab a few boards or score consecutively. That’s Hakim. Take a look over his history, he’s got 20 and 10 potential when he gets the minutes, and he’s waiver wire fodder when he doesn’t. Last night at Phoenix he got 31 minutes and dropped 20 points, 11 rebounds. Hakim was pretty highly touted in college, but came out playing for the lowly grizzlies, tough for anyone not names Pau Gasol to succeed there. Hakim won’t get you a rounded stat line, doesn’t offer many blocks, doesn’t offer 3’s, doesn’t offer many steals, but what he does give is points, boards, fg% and a decent ft%, all with low turnovers.

Ya gotta have a projectable rationale for why thing’s have changed materially enough for a player to begin succeeded now when he couldn’t before. Here’s mine: Hakim is the type of guy who needs to have the ball fed to him by a competent point guard in order to score. He’s not like a Zach Randolph or Caron Butler or Rudy Gay who can work the one on one, be it in the post or from outside. Mike Conley was not that guy, and Conley is the best point guard Memphis had while Warrick was there. Brandon Jennings, and more importantly Luke Ridnour, are those guys.

Which brings me to: Luke Ridnour – G – Milwaukee Bucks

Looking for a cheap source of assists while getting solid numbers elsewhere? Look no further than Luke Ridnour. I love the position he and Warrick are in right now and I hope it continues. Neither are starters, they both come off the bench with the second unit sometime toward the end of the first quarter. Make no mistake, when they come in, they are the focal point of the offense. While there’s an argument going forward of how many minutes Warrick will continue to get, I don’t think there’s any doubt that Luke will be seeing 30+ minutes on the floor (especially with Jennings slump). He’s another guy that performs when he gets the minutes. I expect double digit scoring coupled with 5-6 dimes on average. He’s also a good shooter from beyond the arc. With Redd on the sidelines, their options for guard are Jennings, Bell, Ridnour, and somewhat Delfino. Of this group, I fully expect Ridnour to see the most or second most minutes.

Of the two guys here, I think Ridnour is the better add, and is the one I’ll be shooting for (dropping Dunleavy if I can’t get a trade off). But the final decision should rest on your need for 3’s and dimes or points and boards.

Fantasy Basketball Team, Player and TRADE Analyzer!

Whoa, epic. Alright gents, it's up and running so have at it. I've got all updated stats and some nice new additions. As always, if you find a bug, let me know so I can fix it (hopefully we're past that stage). Everything is the same as it was before except that I've added some new additions listed below. I also removed the whole 'password' thing to make access easier to obtain. I'm going to also be shifting focus to the Baseball Analyzer (that should be fun) going forward, to have it ready for draft time. Enjoy!

-New Team Analyzer: I tested this as much as I could and it seems fairly legit. It basically compares the rank scores of the players you send against those you get. It also has a mod to provide a bonus for 2-1 trades (which are good) and a discount for 1-2 trades (which are usually not good). Use it as a nice guide, but the final decision on any trade is yours!

-Updated Team Analyzer tab: you can now select cells for copy, pasting. I added player ranks, player rank scores, a 'watch list' sheet for players you are targeting, and an 09 stats sheet to look at the players current stat lines.

I think that about does it. Hope you like what you see. Be sure to report bugs so I can fix them quickly!

Four Players To Target

It’s getting to that point in the season where owners are ready to cut bait on players that have hounded them all season. Maybe a player was out with injury, and has been ineffective since his return. We know he’s just getting his legs back, but they think he’s ‘lost it’. Maybe the player has battled an injury all season, and has been inconsistent. We know he’s ‘hurt’ and will heal, they think he’s injured and one step from the shelf. Maybe the player went on IR and his backup came in and was effective. We know coaches tend to stick with their starters, but they think he’s lost his job for good. Here are 4 buy low players that I love right now. Caution! I wouldn’t go after more than two of these guys, no need to take on more risk than is necessary. And really, if you have any questionable players on your squad, maybe just go for one. When you do Ink this deal, be sure to place this guy on your bench until he proves he’s ready to roll (minutes per game will be the key, look for 30+).

1. Devin Harris – PG – NJ Nets

Harris is battling tendinitis in his wrist now, and that’s been the reason given for his ineffective shooting. Still, a recent MRI showed no serious damage, and Harris was held out of the last game as a precautionary move. When healthy and effective, Harris is at least worth 18 points, 6 assists and some steals. He came into the season as a top ranked player, and many people got burned taking him in the second round. If you made a low ball offer last month, they scoffed at you for rubbing it in that he’s been slow. Now, with this latest setback, they are ready to dump. I’d bet you could offer players like Foye (based on his potential production) or Andre Miller (who probably won’t keep up his current stat line when Blake returns).

2. Jose Calderon – PG – Toronto Raptors

Another guy owner’s are just dying to cut bait on. I got a call on Saturday from his owner in my league, sending out a feeler to see what I’d offer him. I told him ‘Sorry bub, no interest here’. I figure he’ll make the rounds this week, and I know everyone will avoid that situation (remember, no one likes to buy low, they only like to buy high) and I’ll snake through a low ball offer sometime on Thursday. They travel tonight for the second game of a back to back, then don’t play again til Friday. Timing should be perfect here. I have no doubt Jose will be their starting PG by the end of the season. He’s not a great source of points, but he is an awesome source of dimes.

3. Andris Biedrins – C – GS Warriors

I asked people to hold off early in December as we didn’t know much about Biedrins injury. Well, he’s back now and it doesn’t appear to be a cause for re-injury concern. Biedrins is my favorite in this group, and I actually already inked the deal. When healthy, he’s a lock for a double double with an average of a steal and 1.5 blocks per game. Best part is, he is dirt cheap right now. I offloaded Hibbert and Barbosa to snag him. I expect, at worst, he’ll give me Hibbert’s numbers. But with the return of Granger, Dunleavy and Murphy, Hibbert will be squeezed for time going forward. Biedrins has only Turiaf to battle for time, as Anthony Randolph went down with injury. Low low low ball here, his owners are completely disgusted (and likely missed the 5 blocks he had on the 5^th, and 3 steals on the 8th). I’m likely to also start using him right away, as he can be very effective even in limited minutes.

4. Manu Ginobili – SG – SA Spurs

The Italian Stallion with a last name no one seems to get right (it’s GIN NO BLEE). Manu’s starting to get the minutes again and it’s showing up in his stat line. He’s a great guy to have on your squad, offering solid points and treys, but chipping in with good numbers everywhere else too. Manu battled injury early on this season, but the Spurs played it right and gave him rest where he needs it. To the owner not paying attention, he might seem inconsistent and not very good. There isn’t much time to strike as I expect the stat line to only improve from here. I’d offer a guy like Ariza here, someone you could really use to offload. Another option would be Randy Foye.

As mentioned, I already inked a deal for Hibbert. Both Calderon and Harris are on the same team in my league and I know the guy is looking to deal. His keeper was Harris this year so I expect him to still be in love, so I’ll target Calderon before going after Manu. My low ball will be something like Iverson and Dunleavy (Indy plays tonight and Wednesday, fingers crossed for two good games from Dunleavy to up his value, I just grabbed him off the FA wire after the 2-1 trade for Biedrins).

One last thing, it might seem like I am giving contradictory advice on Randy Foye right now, suggesting people grab him and also offer him in trades. Randy is an awesome commodity right now because you just don’t know what you’re gonna get. The potential is high enough to warrant a pick up, no doubt, but if I can ink one of the (more sure) guys above with him in a deal, well then take it and run!

Updated!! Top 4 Tiers...

Hey guys, take a looksy at the latest rankings from the Analyzer, interesting stuff! As usual, I placed the guys into tiers based on my own projections, but placed their score next to them for your viewing pleasure. I'm hosting a party at my place tonight so I'll be scarce but that doesn't mean I don't want to hear from you. Drop me a line and I'll catch up late night.

TOP TIER	SCORE		TIER THREE	SCORE		TIER FOUR	SCORE
paul,chris	10.94157		camby,marcus	8.891809		gasol,marc	5.755729
james,lebron	10.66244		davis,baron	6.686826		frye,channing	6.794058
TIER TWO	SCORE		rondo,rajon	6.455842		gallinari,danilo	6.468554
granger,danny	9.285398		love,kevin	6.340062		arenas,gilbert	5.608841
martin,kevin	11.81556		nash,steve	6.29632		gay,rudy	5.444554
wade,dwyane	8.282528		murphy,troy	6.230863		ellis,monta	5.316508
bryant,kobe	8.185003		horford,al	6.137534		deng,luol	5.15077
smith,josh	8.044057		lopez,brook	6.00558		billups,chauncey	5.13672
kidd,jason	8.043611		pierce,paul	5.997996		noah,joakim	5.069658
nowitzki,dirk	7.971994		lewis,rashard	5.980261		boozer,carlos	4.994155
howard,dwight	7.639844		johnson,joe	5.975225		randolph,zach	4.946199
iguodala,andre	7.369765		williams,mo	5.871168		haywood,brendan	4.92383
duncan,tim	7.297299		stoudemire,amare	3.483755		jennings,brandon	4.922366
gasol,pau	7.221477		jamison,antawn	5.854959		bogut,andrew	4.87773
wallace,gerald	7.040251		bosh,chris	5.836106		bargnani,andrea	4.868451
durant,kevin	6.886211		lee,david	5.273601		ginobili,manu	4.707295
			roy,brandon	5.203029		bynum,andrew	4.653001
			anthony,carmelo	5.700671		evans,tyreke	4.512807
			richardson,jason	5.034409		west,david	3.53624
			aldridge,lamarcu	3.235288		jackson,stephen	4.466544
			butler,caron	3.230273		carter,vince	4.100985
			garnett,kevin	5.025239		brand,elton	3.939378
			williams,deron	5.809697		harris,devin	3.054858
						jefferson,al	4.453249
						mayo,o.j.	4.263716
						gordon,eric	4.242095
						allen,ray	4.378615

Friday Night Trade Talk

Big night around the NBA. Jaokim Noah making a STRONG case for Most Improved Player out there. Vince Carter went down with a shoulder injury, but it doesn't look all that bad. Randy Foye made the best of his minutes tonight, softening the blow for many Arenas owners. And DANNY GRANGER was back on the floor. Who's out in Indiana? We wanna know how he looked tonight.

LET'S TALK TRADES! Who ya offerin? Who ya getting? Whatcha need?!

Fantasy Alert: Gilbert Arenas

Quick hit here, it looks like Agent Zero is going to be Agent Suspended. A reliable source told me he's hearing 25 games, and possibly just the rest of the season. I tweeted about this as soon as I heard, I hope that anyone with him and who caught the Tweet was able to react. I know many of you questioned me about this over the last couple days, and I didn't have any good answers for you.

You were kind of like a patient who is terminally ill asking the Doctor if there's anyway to be saved.

Look the quick and obvious add here is Randy Foye, who could be a decent substitute stepping in. He was OK as a fantasy player in Minnesota. All is not lost, have faith and be smart and we'll get through this.

You WILL still win your league DESPITE this setback!

What can Charlie V. tell us about Danny G?

So I’m going through my usual morning repertoire today, emailing out a couple guys in the league for trade feelers. You know, send the first email with a line like ‘Hey what’s up bro, looks like I have this league locked up already! Can’t believe Paz (another manager in my league) snagged Bosh in that last deal, what’d you think of it?’. Then he replies, we chat, and two or three emails down the road I drop in ‘You looking to make any more trades? Selling anyone or looking to add a particular stat line?’. Gotta know where he stands. But anyway, one of the guys boasts how psyched he is Danny Granger is due back soon. That excitement prompted me to give my opinion on the Danny G situation, using Charlie V to explain.

Charlie Villanueva injured his foot December 18^th against the Thunder and has battled Plantar Fasciitis since. In the preseason of this year, many of us had Charlie V. pretty high on the draft board, somewhere in the top 75. Some even had him higher than that, factoring in his breakout potential and the opportunity to take over as lead man in Detroit. Early in the season this looked like a great call and Charlie paid huge dividends. Then came the injury, and then came the scoring drought. Since the injury December 18^th, Charlie V has topped out at 10 points in a game.

This is what you can expect from a player with Plantar. Here’s the deal, it’s a sharp throbbing pain in your heel. The more you run on it, the more it hurts. In basketball, this leads to a player moving a little slower, and importantly, cutting to the hoop or driving the lane less and pulling up for jumpers or taking spot jumpers more. Two things here: first, those are much tougher shots to hit, and second, the defender knows this is the case and thus guards you tighter. He’s not really concerned about you blowing past him and driving the lane. So now you’re taking tougher shots with a hand in your face. Since the injury, Charlie V’s FG percentage is BELOW 20%.

Here’s another guy for you, Andres Nocioni. Back in the 2006 – 2007 season, Nocioni also battled plantar fasciitis. I know it’s hard to believe, but he was actually a pretty darned good fantasy player prior to the injury. In fact, in the 05-06 playoffs Noc was averaging about 20 points and 10 boards. After the injury he became largely ineffective and relegated to fantasy basketball wasteland. He missed a third of the 06 season, then had some start and stops in 07, then relapsed and missed more time in 2008.

Oh, one more thing, neither Nocioni nor Charlie V had the same severity of injury as Danny G, which required surgery.

Could Danny Granger come back and be a superstar again immediately? Yup, anything is possible. Please, re-read that, I’m telling you anything is possible. Am I going to bet any part of my current fantasy season on that? Nope, why risk it? Look if you’re sitting in last place right now, and feeling totally desperate, I can see you making the move to get Danny on the cheap. But if you’re like me, sitting anywhere within striking distance of the leader, trading away a reliable player for Danny is a huge potentially season ending risk to take.

On the flip side, if you’re holding Granger and sitting at the bottom of your league, I totally understand hanging onto him. It’s like sitting on a lottery ticket, who knows you just might win. But if you’re at the top or within striking distance of the top and someone comes along offering you a Carlos Boozer or Gerald Wallace or Antawn Jamison or heck even Kevin Martin, I don’t see why you wouldn’t remove the risk you have with Granger and take something a little more sure back in return.

That’s right, I said Kevin Martin. Totally different scenario there. Kevin Martin shattered his wrist and has to get surgery to fix it. Why am I confident Martin will come back and be effective? Because the night AFTER he shattered his wrist, he was back on the floor and dropped 25 points in the game. Yeah, something tells me it didn’t affect his stroke too much. Again, could he come back and be ineffective? Sure, anything is possible. But in my estimation of risk and reward, I’m banking that Danny G is a higher risk than Kevin Martin by a landslide and that the reward is pretty even.

Let someone else hold the lottery ticket. So long as you play your cards right, work that 2-1 deal, you’re going to get value in return for Granger (especially with him close to returning) and it’s not going to matter how well he does or doesn’t do. It’s someone else’s problem and you’re locked in for the top slot.

Nate Robinson and the 41 Point Game.

DBefore I get to the post, I just want to let everyone know that the new version of the spreadsheet will be available around 6pm EST today. It has some really cool new features including a separate player analyzer. To access the spreadsheet you need to be receiving my posts via feed. If you do receive posts via feed (use any one of the links on this page, including the Google connect link on the right) then at the bottom of the feed will be a ‘footer’ which will contain the latest password. This is the only way I can ensure users are blog subscribers. Do note that sometimes the feed has a delay, so it can take a bit of time before you get the post in your feed. One way to check and make sure you are getting the posts via feed is to also subscribe for comments via feed, since those go out all day. I can also send the password through comments if need be. Once you have the password, enter it by clicking on the button clearly marked at the top right of the page. The redirect will take you to the spreadsheet. If the redirect doesn’t work, it’s likely your web browser. Try changing to a different browser (I.E. or Firefox) and see if that helps. Also try disabling the popup blocker.

Trust me, I am working day and night to make this a more efficient process.

On to the topic of the day and that topic is Nate Robinson. I gotta admit, I don’t watch many NY Knicks games so the whole Nate Robinson scores 41 caught me off guard. During the performance and particularly after it, following through the next day, I received some reader questions asking my opinion on him. My opinion was the same after his performance as it was before his performance, he’s useless. Look, we all know Nate is very talented and really could be either a starter or a solid sixth man on any squad. Prior to the whole Mike D arrival, Nate Rob was in that exact role.



But there are rumors and innuendos and hearsay that will have you believe that Mike D and Nate Rob didn’t get along or they both were in love with the same girl or whatever. Fact is the numbers tell you that Robinson is not fantasy worthy this year mainly due to inconsistent play and decreased minutes. Does scoring 41 points change all that? Nope, not one bit. It was a great effort, but it wasn’t like he was going to be inserted as a starter the very next night.

Now some fantasy sports analysts would have you jump on the train with your eyes closed. They care not about the past, and just need something to write about, so they’re going to tell you to grab Nate with reckless abandon. Stupid, Stupid, Stupid. But don’t worry; thief’s got your back. Look over the course of any season there’s going to be many instances of this, some random talented player making it all happen at once with a stellar performance. Before you go adding and dropping an trading, ask yourself…

Has this guy been a starter all year? Will he likely be a starter going forward? Was this a ‘breakout’ game, i.e. has he never come close to this before, or have we seen this picture before (Nate had a 41 point game last year too). Most importantly, who can I possibly drop to acquire Nate (if he’s already owned, forget it, you don’t need to be paying top dollar here). I’ll say this, feel free to add Nate to your roster if and only if you are dropping a guy that you are pretty confident no one in your league is going to pick up. That’s the only case of adding him. My bench is Barbosa, Griffin and Allen Iverson, Nate doesn’t fit that bunch.

Most importantly, if you do go out and add this guy to your squad, KEEP HIM ON YOUR BENCH! 10 out of 10 times (ok that exaggerates a wee bit) this guy is going to put up a 6 point clunker in the very next game. One performance does not make a guy fantasy start able. Make him prove himself, cause once he’s in you can’t take it back. Don’t let Joe Schmoe influence you into dropping a very useful player for him, Joe doesn’t care about your team, he cares about pushing out a story. What Joe is good for is reporting, not opinion, so read that story again and take in what he says about Gilbert Arenas. Now that’s useful information.

Fantasy BASEBALL!!!! 2010 - PrePrePreseason Player Ranks!

Whoa, let me just start by saying I have the best wife in the world. Totally just sat back and let me put the finishing touches on the SS Calc, which is ready for launch tomorrow, AND then let me begin work on the Baseball file. Well work I did! Here's what I've got for ya, straight from the thief's vault, Top 5 Tiers (just for hitters so far), complete with player rank scores so you can see where the Thief added a little influence. Enjoy!




Fantasy Baseball Top 5 Tiers: Hitters

Player	Rank Score
TIER ONE
pujols,albert	9.862
TIER TWO
ellsbury,jacoby	9.627
crawford,carl	9.096
kemp,matt	8.505
ramirez,hanley	8.347
reynolds,mark	8.296
braun,ryan	8.247
howard,ryan	8.029
fielder,prince	7.732
utley,chase	7.528
figgins,chone	6.763
holliday,matt	6.609
teixeira,mark	6.589
longoria,evan	6.431
cabrera,miguel	6.196
rodriguez,alex	6.028
mauer,joe	5.690
markakis,nick	4.628
beltran,carlos	2.596
ramirez,manny	2.235
TIER THREE
kinsler,ian	7.762
bourn,michael	7.497
werth,jayson	7.428
bay,jason	7.205
rollins,jimmy	7.042
roberts,brian	7.034
abreu,bobby	6.965
tulowitzki,troy	6.932
jeter,derek	6.773
hill,aaron	6.343
phillips,brando	6.177
bartlett,jason	6.037
upton,b.j.	6.031
zobrist,ben	6.003
upton,justin	5.895
zimmerman,ryan	5.846
lind,adam	5.837
lee,derrek	5.835
damon,johnny	5.783
granderson,curt	5.723
pedroia,dustin	5.715
suzuki,ichiro	5.598
morales,kendry	5.587
youkilis,kevin	5.416
wright,david	5.298
sandoval,pablo	4.649
votto,joey	4.525
martinez,victor	4.509
lee,carlos	4.453
morneau,justin	4.433
sizemore,grady	3.905
TIER FOUR
guerrero,vladim	1.781
cruz,nelson	5.636
choo,shin-soo	5.621
hunter,torii	5.542
ethier,andre	5.500
gonzalez,adrian	5.492
victorino,shane	5.453
cuddyer,michael	5.327
ibanez,raul	5.189
pena,carlos	5.174
davis,rajai	5.103
dunn,adam	5.095
cano,robinson	5.065
span,denard	4.985
mclouth,nate	4.925
morgan,nyjer	4.853
pence,hunter	4.699
rios,alex	4.670
kubel,jason	4.390
uggla,dan	4.220
berkman,lance	4.211
young,michael	4.156
barmes,clint	3.945
jones,adam	3.883
konerko,paul	3.877
wells,vernon	3.864
scutaro,marco	3.856
ortiz,david	3.714
ramirez,alexei	3.630
cabrera,asdruba	3.560
ludwick,ryan	3.512
helton,todd	3.200
ramirez,alexei	3.630
cabrera,asdruba	3.560
ludwick,ryan	3.512
helton,todd	3.200
soriano,alfonso	2.831
hamilton,josh	1.435
TIER FIVE
theriot,ryan	3.766
tejada,miguel	3.699
hawpe,brad	3.676
rivera,juan	3.546
mccann,brian	3.523
suzuki,kurt	3.407
teahen,mark	2.095
aybar,erick	2.759
drew,stephen	2.118
ross,cody	3.932
lopez,jose	3.898
jones,chipper	2.950

Top Four Sell High Candidates

Sell High candidates are going to be much tougher for me to parse through quantitatively. Mainly because you're going to see guys like Jrue Holiday popping up there, who got a few games to start this year but will likely be no more than a 10 minute per game contributor for the rest of the season. Sure I'd love to sell him high, but who's buying?! Anyways, so I was able to pull out four solid guys that had big scores on the Sell High list. Take a look (scores of -2 or lower):




1. Brandon Jennings
Score: -2.59
There's so many reason why this is a good call. He just doesn't have the same pedigree as other top rookies, he wasn't expected to be as good as he's played, guys like Redd and Bogut are contributing more consistently now, and most importantly, that Rookie Wall is right around the corner.

2. Ersan Ilyasova
Score: -2.07
Boy I been sounding the bell on this guy for much of the season. Talk about unexpected, Ersan was an early season Waiver Wire hero that one too many just fell in love with. Fact is, his role stands to diminish and he's wildly inconsistent. If you're the guy left holding a big bag of Ersan at the end of the season, chances are you ain't winning the league.

OK, now the field is a bit thin, but I stretched over the line a bit for the next two because I think they are important to point out....

3. Big Ben Wallace
Score: -1.82
Ben's had a great season, I hear ya. But look, he's 35 years old. For a guy that size, that's pretty old. Moreover he's averaging the most Rebounds per game in the last four years. Finally, even when he was good, injuries tended to pop up once a season. Now that he's 35 and crashing the boards as hard as he is, you can expect a second half fall off for sure.

4. Trevor Ariza
Score: 1.73
Who are you Trevor Ariza? You've been in the league for eight years now. You were a second round pick out of UCLA, not highly touted. You had an OK season last year, yet somehow the Hype artists out there had us buying you as the next Tracy McGrady. Those steals sure are nice, and your overall stat line has so much potential, but 66% from the charity stripe? Something doesn't smell right about you bro, best to cash in while the price is right.

As usual fella's I'll be around all day putting the finishing touches on the Calc. This post, when sent via FEED will have the new password at the bottom of it. I'm also going to start working on Fantasy Baseball 2010 rankings and sauce. By the way, hope you like the new layout.

Hit me up with any questions!

The Top Five Buy Low Candidates

If you read my last post you'd have noticed that I mentioned rebuilding pieces of the calculator. Well in doing so, I also built some very new and very cool features. You will now have the availability to enter a players name into the system and it will let you know if he is a Buy Low, Sell High or Hold. Pretty neat stuff! I plan to have this rolled out by Monday evening. PLEASE NOTE: The password for access has changed, and the new password is listed on the bottom this each feed post.

So I ran through the calculator, and took a look at the overall Buy Low/Sell High scores for all the players and was so shocked at who the top 5 names were that I figured I'd report them all to you. Now the data has been updated through today so that had some impact, no doubt. Take a look, you're going to be surprised, I guarantee it!



(Scores greater than 2 represent a buy low)


1. Kevin Garnett - F - Boston Celtics
SCORE: 2.37
Across the entire universe of players, KG had the highest Buy Low score. When I saw this I wasn't wholly shocked, as he definitely has performed below his career numbers. Still KG had been coming on of late, showing solid improvement. If this guy is even remotely available for cheap, I think you have to get out there and make the move.

2. Jose Calderon - G - Toronto Raptors
SCORE: 2.35
Another pretty obvious selection here, but I'll venture further and say that while the score might not have been as high as KG's, the price is definitely lower. With Jarrett Jack playing as well as he has been, it is no doubt that owners are scared. This could be a HUGE source of VERY cheap dimes for your squad.

3. Amar'e Stoudemire - C - Phoenix Suns
SCORE: 2.34
Really? Amar'e is still on this list? Actually, in parsing through the data I noticed immediately why. Basically, even though Amar'e has shown progress and return to form, there is still so much more to gain from him that he scores top 3. There's a big return on this guy right now, so those looking to cash in some top players, keep Amar'e on your radar in return.

4. Darius Songalia - F - New Orleans Hornets
SCORE: 2.13
HAHAHAHA! I put him in here to prove a point to everyone, that I'd rather make now than sometime in the future. The calculator is going to put a score on everyone's head, this does NOT mean said player is good for your fantasy squad. It just means that it's highly likely the player will go on to perform better than he has been performing. Looks like the Calc thinks ole Darius is going to have a great second half of the season, but hardly a fantasy worthy performance.

5. Chris Paul - G - New Orleans Hornets
SCORE: 2.08
That's right, the 5th best buy low guy out there. Shocking. What's even more shocking is that the calc does recognize he is currently the best player out there, ranking him #1. Even more, when I updated the stats, his #1 lead on Lebron GREW and the calc STILL says he is a buy low candidate. Unreal, this guy is the gift that just keeps on giving. Needless to say, to everyone out there that snapped him up in December, here's more reason to smile.

Alright, I'll be around for most of the day putting the finishing touches on the Fantasy Team Analyzer (aka Secret Sauce Calculator), so hit me up with a question or comment. Hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend!

A Very CAUTIOUS Buy Low Candidate: High Risk = High Reward!

Look it’s getting late into the season, just over a third of the games have been played, so we’re going to have to dig a little deeper for solid Buy Low guys. Don’t get me wrong, they’re out there, we just have to do some extra research. At this point the two best opportunities we’re going to get will be either players that have had a recent bad string of games, maybe even up to a month’s worth, or players coming off of injuries that (hopefully) aren’t bad and won’t cause any recurring issues. It’s this last group that I’m going to focus on today. Before I issue this call though, let me be clear that there is (obviously) some risk associated here. You want to be sure to factor that into any trade offers you make. But where there is risk, there is reward! And I really have a good feeling about this guy.

The day before the start of the 2009 NBA season, it was confirmed that Blake Griffin had a stress fracture in his knee. Specifically, it was a fractured left patella. Prior to this injury, Blake had been dominating all the way back to college and high school. In the last season he played at Oklahoma, Griffin finished with 30 double doubles. This was 1 short of the NCAA record set by none other than David Robinson. He also set a Big 12 record for most rebounds in a collegiate career. In one game, his best ever, he scored 40 points and pulled down 23 rebounds, no small feat even at that level. He was the college player of the year, averaging 22.7 points and 14.4 rebounds. Listed at 6’9” and 251 pounds, Blake can bang around with anyone in the NBA. In fact, in preseason he was averaging 13.7 points and 8.1 boards, again very solid numbers.

Then there’s the downside.

Blake injured his knee after a power dunk in his final preseason game. I’ve done some digging on this injury and am optimistic about what I read. A fracture in the patella takes about 6 weeks to heal, but the Clippers have sidelined Griffin for a bit longer to make sure that he heals properly and fully. That’s not the best news for current owners, but great news for prospective owners. Since he didn’t require surgery (a la Greg Oden) it’s not as serious of an injury, and importantly, he’s been able to keep weight on the knee which will help deter any muscle loss. Well this all sounds good, what’s the bad stuff? He also suffered a sprained MCL in his knee in 08, and tore cartilage in his other knee in 08, which required a scope. Total time missed for these two injuries? Three games…

So on the upside we have a rare talent that looks to be headed for a career as a double double machine. The player I most expect him to resemble is David Lee (who incidentally is also listed at 6’9” and 250 pounds). Now I realize that the Clippers already have two good bigs in Camby and Kaman, so initially one would expect that playing time will be limited. Have no fear, as we already expected, Marcus Camby is showing signs of injuries beginning to build and has already begun missing time. Expect the Clippers to slot Mr. Griffin right in. Of course, we also need to mention the Baron Davis factor. Everyone plays a little better with BD on the floor.

On the downside we grab a guy who has a somewhat history of knee troubles, though I can’t string any of them together, and he does seem to be able to tough stuff out. He’s young so should heal quicker too. With a third of the season gone, his injury risk concerns me a little less.

So it’s on you, care to make that gamble? Full disclosure here, I’ve already nabbed Mr. Griffin in my league, in a trade that cleared today. I sent John Salmons packing, and that’s about the best player I’d offer to get him if I were you. After holding him for so long, it’s likely his owner is ready to deal easily. The good thing about the timing of this call is that Blake is slated to come back around January 15th. That gives you roughly a week to close the deal, and another couple days for it to process, and voila! He’ll be on your team just as he’s back in the lineup.

Good luck working those deals. My suggestion is to try and get him as a ‘throw in’ for a 2-2 offer. Blake could have a serious impact on your team!

Buy Low - Ben Gordon - Detroit Pistons

Thief’s been working hard so you don’t have to! Boy do I have a nice buy low guy right now; I’m sitting here working my own trade wire to get him on the cheapy cheap myself. I’m talking about none other than Ben Gordon. There are quite a few things working in unison that make Ben a great opportunity, especially for those who do not look closely at the numbers. To begin with, he’s just coming off an ankle injury. Now I’m not sure where the rumor started, but for some reason people view ole Ben as an injury risk. It’s just not true, in fact prior to this season Ben missed an average of 2 games a year! However he did miss 10 games in ’07, but that hardly makes a player an injury risk. Still, chances are the guy who owns him in your league is concerned that he’ll go down again, and is anxious to deal him off.

Second, he comes off the bench. This has been the case since his early days in the NBA. Who cares! He averages over 30 minutes a game which is what really counts. In fact, sometimes (like in Ben’s case) it’s better that he comes off the bench because it means that when he is in the game, he is the focal point for the offense. Yet, without a doubt, the owner of Ben in your league will discount his game because he doesn’t start.



Finally, Ben is down in one key statistical area that WE know is going to bounce back in the near future. Let’s take a look at the numbers…

BUY LOW – Ben Gordon – G – Detroit Pistons

CAT 2009 Career

PTS 18.5 18.5

AST 2.8 3.0

3’s 1.5 1.9

REB 2.4 3.0

STL 0.8 0.8

BLK 0.1 0.2

TO’s 1.7 2.4

FT% 82.5 85.7

FG% 43.8 43.7

3PT% 34.2!!! 41.2!!!

I added that last line in there to show you all what we’re keying on. Over his entire career (this being his sixth year) Ben has shot between 40.5% and 43.5% from the 3 point line, dropping an average of almost 2 per game. This year his accuracy is down 7%! However his attempts are still sitting right on his career average too. This can only be explained by one cause, luck. As luck would have it, thus far, some of his shots just haven’t dropped. And as luck usually goes, that will turn around by season ends. Lucky for us it hasn’t happened yet as Ben was only 4-15 in his last game from the field and 1-5 from outside. Perfect time to buy low.

About that injury he had…… Glad you asked! Ben had a sprained ankle, if we discounted every NBA player that sprained their ankle, we’d have no players left on our team. Its basketball and these things happen, nothing lingering, nothing to worry about. Might take a week to shake off the rust, but I have no doubt he’ll be back to dropping shots like it’s his business. Looking over the Sauce, you can expect Ben to help you out in 3’s, points, and FT%. His assists, steals and FG% are pretty neutral, and you should expect a small drop in TO’s and Blocks. Typical guard stuff.

Remember ballaz, it’s all about who we deal to get ole Ben to make this trade worth it. I’d love to see you move guys like Beno Udrih or Channing Frye to snag him. Trying to move a big instead? What about Brendan Haywood or Erick Dampier? Still yet, don’t shy off those 2- 1 or 2 -2 deals to bring him home.

One last note here, remember you need to be receiving these posts via email in order to get the password to access the SS calculator. If you are receiving them via email (it can take up to an hour after the post goes up), it will be below. If not, you can sign up at any of the various links on this blog. Also, do note, the calculator does NOT use just current stats but also incorporates historical stats and a couple of other ‘tweaks’ to account for specific factors. For instance Rookies are tilted a bit down, Old timers are too, and if a player has been injured we account for that too (whether it be this year or in a past year). So having the most recent stats won’t help, and I’ll update the spreadsheet weekly (which will be more than enough). Also do note that the password will change each week, gotta make sure that only true readers get access. Now get out there and DOMINATE!

The Book of Basketball by Bill Simmons

I have a wonderful wife with a passion for sports. I'm a lucky guy, but more on that later. She got the The Book of Basketball by Bill Simmons for Christmas. It comes highly touted, I'll review the book as I read it myself and share any good tidbits. Here's a snippet from the Wall Street Journal Review of the book:

In what passes for structure, Mr. Simmons offers a brief (for him) history of the league. Then he "corrects" every mistaken MVP award the NBA ever handed out. (When Boston's Dave Cowens won it in 1973, he says, Milwaukee's Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was robbed.) Then he imagines every detail of a new and improved Basketball Hall of Fame, naming the 96 players who belong there and offering an analysis of each selection. Then he ranks the top 20 teams of all time (No. 1: the 1986 Celtics; No. 2: the 1996 Chicago Bulls). Finally, he conjures up the perfect 12-man roster to face a team of Martians with the fate of Earth on the line—with the 1985 version of Magic Johnson passing to a 1992 vintage of Mr. Jordan and the 2003 Tim Duncan rebounding.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704322004574475602013608632.html

Looks like a fun and yet educational read. Merry Christmas all!

Alert! Two Time Sensitive Buy Lows!

Merry Christmas Eve thief nation, hope you're all home enjoying this fine holiday week. Me? Doing what I always do, stayin on top of the Fantasy Sports world to keep you in the loop. I don't rest on this stuff, I love it too much. Doc Rivers doesn't rest on it either, nor Phil Jackson, nor Bill Belicheck, this is what it takes to bring home championships. I texted a guy in my league today, told him I was putting Salmons and Jackson on the block cause I have treys to spare. His reply was 'stop looking at your fantasy squad, it's Christmas Eve!'. Yeah, thanks, go f*ck yaself bro, I'm in it to win it. On to the post!

I sending out a TIME SENSITIVE buy low here on two studs. Remember my post from earlier this week regarding the difference between being hurt and being injured, well we got word today that two top notch stars are definitely hurt. I did some background research into this to make sure they were just hurt, which I'm gonna show you. Hopefully you can go forth and use this information to swindle some manager who thinks they are injured, as opposed to just hurt, and snag each on the cheapy cheap.

Paul Pierce is first up. Pierce started off the season on fire, posting a sick FG% through November and early December. I rang the SELL SELL SELL bell on him as we knew the FG% was coming down, and indeed it did. Well the time to BUY BUY BUY is upon us. Released today was news that Pierce will miss the next two weeks due to an infection in his knee. From the report:

***Pierce was in so much pain from a right knee infection that the all-star forward called team trainer Ed Lacerte on Wednesday around 3 a.m, coach Doc Rivers said. Lacerte went to Pierce's house and took him to the hospital, where they drained fluid from Pierce's knee.

Pierce didn't make the flight to Orlando for the Christmas Day game against the Magic. He is expected to miss at least two weeks.

"What he's going through is pretty significant," Celtics guard Ray Allen said. "It is serious. Because me knowing Paul, he's always practising and he's always playing, so for him not to be here, it must be very significant."***

Sound scary? GOOD, go send it to the owner of Pierce too, scare the ever livin crap out of him. It's an infection, nothing more nothing less. They caught it, they'll treat it, he'll be fine. No breaks, no tears, no strains, just an infection. He'll be out two weeks give or take, and he'll come back being himself again. I'm offering Stephen Jackson and John Salmons for him.

Next up is Brandon Roy. Roy hasn't lived up to par thus far in the season, but par for him is a pretty high friggin bar and his owners aren't necessarily disappointed. Roy has a 20, 5, 5, type of game which is fantasy gold. In his last game he suffered a sprained shoulder and left the game. Sprained shoulder, sounds bad, especially when they list his timetable as 'day to day' and they say 'will run tests'. You know what a sprained shoulder is? It happens when you fall down and your arm is outstretched. You know what they tell you to do to avoid getting one? Don't play sports. QB's get this all the time, it takes about two to three days to heal up and then you're back out there. Nothing big. Again I offered Stephen Jackson and John Salmons for Roy. I figure a sprained shoulder sounds worse, maybe he panics. It's Christmas Eve, he's getting a little tipsy, sees the trade come in through his phone and...........yeah, that's all I want for Christmas, Pierce and Roy on the cheapy cheap.

Go hook it up playa, straight thievin!

The Roto Studs

You know, in basketball even if you're playing a Head to Head format, you're still playing Roto style, just that your Roto game is week to week. That being said, this post relates to you too. today I'm going to highlight four players that I like to call The Roto Studs. They're the guys that are perfect to have on your team as they chip in to near every category. They are all Tier Three players, save for one that's a Tier Two, but most owners don't realize their true value. If you can convince someone to sell you a Roto Stud, you'll be happy you did so.

Gerald Wallace
GWall is an unbelievable athlete who can jump out of the gym. Ridiculously enough, he plays the 3, yet is second in the league is Rebounds per game. Read that again, second in the league to Superman. Unreal. Take a look at everything else:
CAT 2009
PTS 18.1
REB 12.1
AST 1.9
STL 1.8
BLK 0.9
3's 0.6
FT% 73.8
FG% 46.5
TO 2.9
Almost perfect. You know, he is good at everything, master at nothing. Compare his line to the sauce. This guy helps you out in 6 of 9 categories, still chips in enough 3's to not hurt you, and it's only the turnovers and assists that are low. This is a guy you get and you don't give up. I know he's injury prone, I know the rebounds are DOUBLE his career numbers, but even if he goes down for a week or two, even if the Boards come down to earth, he's still too valuable to part with. You just won't get value for him. The hallmark of a Roto stud, by the way, is the high points, high FG%, as you'll see with the rest.

Joe Johnson
Another awesome Roto stud. I feel like I spend half the season every year trying to work Joe J off of another manager. Like I said, once you get one of these guys, you don't let him go. He's a building block, almost like a Tier One player (but not as dominant).
CAT 2009
PTS 21.3
REB 5.4
AST 5.2
STL 1.1
BLK 0.0
3's 1.5
TO 2.2
FG% 45.7
FT% 85.1
Again notice the high FG%, high points. Look at your team, look at the guys averaging over 20 points a game and see what their FG% looks like. Joe J helps you in literally every category except blocks and he's a little high in Turnovers. That 20 point, 5 board and 5 assist line is fantasy gold.

Antawn Jamison
The high points, high FG% phenomenon is much easier when we're talking about a big man. Time Duncan shoots over 50% from the field, so does Dwight Howard. But Joe J and G Wall are also chipping in some treys for you, and still pulling in respectable boards. Then there's Antawn, he does it all...
CAT 2009
PTS 20.4
REB 8.3
AST 1.1
STL 1.2
BLK 0.3
TO 1.4
3's 1.5
FG% 48.3
FT% 66
Those three pointers are really the icing on the cake. Hurts you a bit in dimes and less even in blocks. The FT% is an anomaly compared to his career average, and we profiled that in our Buy Low earlier this year. But the rest of the numbers, including the low turnovers, are fantasy gold.

Jason Richardson
This last guy is a favorite of mine. You'll notice he and GWall are less well rounded than the other two, but offer the more dominant stats for a particular category. For G Wall it's the boards, for J-Rich it's the three's. And again, the key here is high fg%.
CAT 2009
PTS 15.6
REB 5.0
AST 1.9
STL 0.9
BLK 0.5
3's 2.0!!!!
TO 1.2
FG% 47.0
FT% 76.0
J-Rich's points per game are currently sitting at an 8 year low, which is the only reason you might be able to get his manager to sell him right now. Helps you in literally every category except dimes, and the low TO's is a gem. Averaging 2 treys a game while shooting 47% from the field is unreal. The nice thing about these Roto studs is their Rank (be it yahoo or ESPN) never truly show you their value.

I'm now sitting on three of these guys, and trying to work on getting Joe J on my squad too. Do the math yourself, look over the numbers for these four guys, add in a decent to good point guard and center and you'll quickly realize you have every category covered in a pretty dominating way. I'm fully aware that each of these four guys misses time to injuries regularly, and that's definitely important to know and be aware of. Also, two players who are quickly earning themselves a spot in this group, especially with this years performance, are Carmelo Anthony and Monta Ellis. Though Anthony has been so hot we like him as a Sell High.

But you'll be hard pressed to find such excellent all around contributors as The Roto Studs. Take a look yourself, look over other Tier Three players like Chauncey Billups and Josh Smith and you'll instantly see what I mean!

An Oldy But Goodie

My boy Paz shot me over an email today, he said 'Hey, you should go over how you pull off a trade with these guys on your blog'. Paz plays with me in every league, so he's got some experience with my style. 'You know, the whole posting, emailing, relentless offers, etc. It kills me, I totally know from your posts your about to snake someone into a big deal. Share that knowledge!'. This coming from an opponent mind you. Anyway, I informed him that I had already done that two weeks ago, BUT, for all the new readers as well as the originals that need some brushing up, here it is again. This time I've added in a few message board posts from my league to give you ideas.

*********************************************************


It’s fairly easy to eye out the players on your own squad that are ripe to sell high, and equally easy to eye out players on other teams that you’re looking to either buy low, or just need to add to your squad. However actual execution is a whole other level of play. Readers have been asking me lately, how do I convince people to make a deal with me that when that deal is lopsided in my favor? This is an important question indeed! Let’s run through the five steps of proper Thievin.

1. Effort
First things first, If you’re just shooting out an offer to an opponent with no communication, then it’s most likely you’ll receive a rejection. Particularly if you’re lookin to thieve. Why? Because the guy you just shot a trade offer to is going to think as he opens the email ‘Oh god, here comes and offer, this dood is trying to screw me’. 90% of the people who play any fantasy sport have this approach, zero trust. There are many reasons for this, but the biggest one is EGO. They don’t want to be the guy who made the stupid deal and gets heckled for the rest of the season. Put some effort into your offers. Find those categories your target is down in, whether he is losing them in H2H matches or just has a low score in roto. Use the comments section of a trade offer to TELL the target exactly what he is gaining by making this trade with you.

Here's an example of getting people riled up. Posted this just before I landed Gerald Wallace for Mike Miller. The idea here was to motivate through insult:

Idiot Complaceny
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 350 Dec 2 6:52pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

It makes no sense to me whatsoever how you people can just sit back and watch your team go down the drain. This game is about numbers and it is MORE THAN OBVIOUS what you are lacking and how it can be fixed. Trading ain't rocket science, it's merely an agreement where you get what you need and I get what I need.

If you're content with the notion that it's possible to win simply by drafting, then you are a moron, best of luck to ya. But if you want to actually PLAY fantasy sports, as opposed to watching it, hit me up and let's make a deal.


2. Massage the Numbers
Sure, you TELL the target that this deal is good for them, but you also need to SHOW your target this deal is good for them. How do you do that? You use whatever numbers you can possibly get to back your case. Say, for instance, the target is in need of treys and steals. Look at the players you are offering versus the one you get back, how can we force these numbers to show that he is indeed making a benefit of treys and steals? Maybe we add up the total for each guy this year, and use those figures. Maybe we add up the averages and use those numbers. Maybe we use their 2008 numbers. Whatever it takes, whichever is the most convincing, go with it. Two tips here: if you are offering a 2-1, be sure to add up the stats for both of your guys vs. their one guy. Many people won’t realize they will be benching one player, so won’t notice the difference. Also, if a player has been injured, and hasn’t played much or missed time, their average numbers can be wildly skewed in your favor. If a guy missed the whole season up to now, and has played two games, scoring 25 and 30 points in those games, well then tell your target he averages 27.5 points a game!

Posted this about an hour before I landed a deal sending Courtney Lee for John Salmons:

HI! NEED THREE's, WILL DEAL STEALS!!
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 355 Dec 11 8:59pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

Looking for a three point shooter (1.5+ treys/gm), preferably one with a FG% north of 44%, and one that chips in a good 3+ assists, averages around 15+ points a game.

I can offer a guy that averages 2+ steals per game. In fact, he's currently tied for 5th in the league overall for steals. He won't hurt you in any of the other categories either.

Hit me up if you have someone in mind.

3. Create a Sense of Competition
People look for confirmation from other people. They are more inclined to want a player they believe other people want. So, after you make your offer, pop onto your message board and post ‘Trade Offers’ then proceed to tell people that you’ve fielded a couple of offers for such and such player and you’re deciding between a few. This will give your target a sense of urgency and fear that he is losing out on a deal someone else might get.

Put this post up to drum up interest for Thompson. Within the hour my offer of Thompson for Butler was accepted:

On the Block: Jason Thompson
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 355 Dec 3 4:17pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

Some of you had never heard of Jason Thompson before this season, this post is not intended for you. To everyone else, as you might've gathered I'm intent on moving Thompson, preferably for steals. I've got some offers that I'm working through, I'll try and decide in the next couple days. Meanwhile if you are interested, shoot me an email sooooooooon!

4. Let Them Think They Won
People prefer to be the one making the offer that finally gets accepted, versus accepting someone else’s offer. It’s a control and ego thing. While it may not always be possible, if you get into a series of counter proposals, don’t be afraid to take one they send you. First off it insures that a deal gets done before they leave in frustration, and secondly they’ll be more likely to have a good feeling about the trade.

5. Promotion Promotion Promotion
Once you ink the deal, get on that message board immediately and put up a glorious post. Title it, NICE TRADE, and say what a pleasure it was to ink a deal with so and so, and that you look forward to future deals, and that you really think the deal will be a big benefit to both teams. You know what this does? It let’s everyone know that you trade, and that it’s OK to trade with you. Moreover they’ll be a little jealous because they weren’t involved in this fun aspect of fantasy sports, so they’ll instantly start trying to make a deal. Guess who they’re gonna go to for that deal?

Here's an example after I dealt Arenas:

HOUSTON WE HAVE A TRADE!
Posted by: Gabadoo's All-Starz

Message ID: 312 Nov 30 10:11pm | Reply | Post | < Previous | Next >

Nice deal Mikey, enjoy Agent Zero aka Hibachi, he's an exciting player.


Take the time to do it right, be patient for the right deal to show itself, and execute!


**********************************************************
These were just some examples, limited to the posts I could still access. As you might have noticed, we play with a very active message board. Currently at 403 posts. That's all me, I work to keep the dialogue going, and probably account for over 25% of the posts. I want everyone to know who I am, and to know that if they wanna deal, they need to come to me first.

Have a Merry Christmas everyone. I'll have the IPhone on me all night so feel free to drop a line as usual.

Buy Low On This All-Star

Over the last week or so I've fielded more and more questions from readers looking to rid themselves of the services of David West. I could understand their frustration given his slow start and inconsistent play of late. However as the cries grew louder I decided to look a little further into Mr. West's numbers. As you've probably gathered by now, I'm big on anyone playing alongside CP3. That is, if you are a reasonably decent basketball player, and you play with CP3, your numbers go up, especially scoring. David West is the best player that plays alongside Paul.

Alright so we like his team situation. And the two have played together for long enough to build some serious chemistry. Thus I'm signaling the alarm, it's time to Buy Low on Mr. David West. Let's take a look at the numbers:

DAVID WEST - F - New Orleans Hornets
CAT 2008 2009 Career
PTS 21 16.2 15.4
REB 8.5 7.1 7.2
AST 2.3 2.4 1.7
STL 0.6 0.7 0.7
3's 0.1 0.1 0.1
BLK 0.9 0.7 0.8
TO 2.1 2.8 1.6
FG% 47.2 46.5 48.2
FT% 88.4 85.5 84.1

As you can see, David is slightly better than his career numbers, but pretty far off his 2008 season which was an impressive campaign. Two factors at work for the current slump, a slow start to the season coupled with an injury to CP3. I dug deep into West's career, looking into his game log's for both the 08 and 07 seasons. It's noticeable that he often starts a little slower, and definitely performs better in late December through January than he does in November.

Basketball players, like baseball players, can be streaky. There's plenty of varying reasons for this occurrence, we don't need to concern ourselves with them. Instead, it's best to try and identify those streaks and use them to our advantage. I imagine the current cost in a trade for David West would be something around one of the following - Udrih, Illyasova, Crawford, Scola, or Battier. If we're wrong, you haven't lost much production going from Scola to West. But if we're right, and we will be, the payoff will be huge.

Now GO INK THAT DEAL!

One Game, One Sell High, and One Nice Add

Good morning Thief Nation! I hope last night's games treated your teams well. Chances are, if you had the opportunity to Buy Low on John Salmons, his six steals put a smile on your face. Derrick Rose also continued his campaign for best early Buy Low, posting 24 points and 7 assists. Man I wish I was able to convince his stubborn owner to deal in November! Finally we saw a nice effort from Eric Gordon, who was 3-6 from 3 point territory. All in all not a bad night.

OK on to the post. The first guy up today is our Sell High candidate Andrew Bogut. For those of you missed it, Bogut posted an astounding 31 points and 18 rebounds last night. Lost in the shuffle of that game was a little noticed fact that Michael Redd played 41 minutes, looks like he's feeling better! But as for Bogut, the time to sell is NOW. It's always toughest to shop a guy right after a big game, but the fact is his value will never be as high as it is right now. Remember, don't fall in love with your players, this is our best opportunity to cash in. On to the numbers:

Andrew Bogut - C - Milwaukee Bucks
CAT 2009 Career
PTS 16 12.2
REB 10 8.8
AST 2.2 2.5
STL 0.7 0.7
3's 0.0 0.0
BLK 2.0 1.1
TO 2.0 2.0
FG% 51.3 53.3
FT% 53.7 58.9

For starters, if you're gonna have a guy that shoots this poorly from the charity stripe on your team, make it Dwight Howard. But look at those points and rebounding numbers, way above average. Bogut is a former #1 overall draft pick, so we can't necessarily assume this isn't just a breakout season. However there's two things we do know, first is that his numbers aren't going to get much better than this (I mean, they're pretty awesome right now) and secondly that those numbers are definitely inflated from his last game.

But most importantly, Bogut is very injury prone. In the four seasons prior to this one, Bogut has missed an average of 16.5 games, and only played 36 last year, AND has already missed time this year. My advice? Find some unsuspecting manager to offload this gem to, hopefully in exchange for a Tier Two stud. Try to knock down Gerald Wallace or Joe Johnson or even Paul Pierce (whose value has come back to earth since our initial sell high recommendation). Don't get caught holding the bag when Bogut has to miss more time ahead. Don't fall in love!

In the same game, I noticed something else important, and for those of you following me on Twitter, you likely caught my recommendation to watch Roy Hibbert last night. I was a big fan of Hibbert in Georgetown, I liked his game and he appeared to me to be NBA ready. After a season of little minute and great progress last year, Roy was poised to break out. The only knock on him was - can he stay out of foul trouble? Well, to date this year he's only averaging 3.8 fouls per game, for a guy his size that is success!

But the issue has been Indiana's inconsistent playing time for ole Roy. Some games he's in there for 30 minutes, some for just 10! I felt last night was a key glimpse into how they planned on playing him for the rest of the year. Roy logged 28 minutes, lead the team in scoring, and had only one foul. During his stretch of averaging 30 minutes from Nov. 3rd to the 18th, 7 games, Roy proved he can be the cornerstone of the Indiana Pacers, and a cornerstone of fantasy teams.

It's likely that Roy is on your WW right now. If not, you could try to make a trade for him, but I'll bet most managers are going to hold a tight grip. However if he is available and you have the slot, I'd add here (and indeed I just dropped Jarret Jack for Roy). Two key stats to leave you with, first is that Roy is averaging 2 blocks per game. That's a huge number that is even higher if you just look at the nights he logs over 25 minutes a game. Also, and more importantly, Roy averages almost half a point a minute on the court and .3 boards per minute. So for every 30 minute outing, we can expect a solid line of 15 points, 9 boards and 2 blocks. That's worth a roster spot in my league!

P.S. one little add on tidbit, it appears that Jeff Foster is nursing a back strain. Foster has a history of injury issues himself, and he was the main guy coming in for Hibbert. So we got that going for us too.

Progress Report On The Early Buy Low Targets

Report card time! We don't learn anything if we don't check up on the choices we've made so far and see how those trades have panned out thus far. I dug in and went back to four of the earliest BUY LOW candidates we profiled. Took a look at their numbers at that time, and we'll look at their numbers now. Before we get into the details, I just want to reiterate a few things.

First things first, when I issue out a Buy Low on a player, it means that player is playing BELOW THEIR POTENTIAL. By targeting this player in the right deal, you aim to get him at a value that is below what they are really worth. This is how you stack your team with solid players. I can't tell you how many people, in the comments section of this blog, told me repeatedly how bad they just wanted to ditch Caron Butler or Amare Stoudemire in November. THESE are the people we target in a trade.

BUT it's ALL about WHO you deal to them in the trade. For instance, I dealt Jason Thompson to get Caron Butler, score! However if you rolled over and dealt Paul Pierce to get Butler, well that's a steep price to pay and really misses the whole idea behind a Buy Low. The owner of these players is dying to just cut loose. The BEST time to target them is IMMEDIATELY after the target player has a poor game.

This is what Buy Low is all about. Most of the time it works, sometimes it doesn't, but so long as we win on 75% of the deals, we're golden. In the next post we'll go through some of the Sell High calls too. OK on to the numbers:

Caron Butler
We issued the call to Buy Low in the first post of this blog, around December 1st. Caron's numbers pre and post that choice are as follows:
CAT PRE POST
PTS 16.4 17.5
REB 7 6.6
STL 1.3 1.8
FG% 41% 45%

I'm only posting the relevant changes. As you can see, Caron went from a sub par player right back into being a worthy contributor. Moreover, he's just starting to heat up and things should get better even from here.

Amare Stoudemire
We issued the call on Amare at around the same time. Amare would've been a HUGE payoff if you could snag him, check it out.
CAT PRE POST
PTS 19.2 21.9
REB 7.1 11.4

WOW, unfortunately I didn't get Amare on my squad. His owner just wouldn't budge. I know a bunch of you all did, so SOUND OF IF YA HEAR ME! Again, the rest of his numbers didn't change much so I'm just posting the important ones.

Derrick Rose
Rose we targeted as a great fill in for PG if you missed out on one of the big 3. He was IMMENSELY cheap early on, and really had a nice payoff as well. Check it out:
CAT PRE POST
PTS 15.8 21.5!!!
AST 5.3 6.1!!!
TO 3.1 2.4
Rose has really turned it on of late, particularly in his last outing. What a great return on investment! Sometimes you just don't notice this stuff til it hits you in the face.

Ok we have one last guy, who unfortunately might've just gotten injured. That is Stephen Jackson who we targeted shortly after his trade to Charlotte. We earmarked this as a good deal for him, a great place to land. Check it out:
Stephen Jackson
CAT PRE POST
PTS 19.2 21.5
FT% 65.4 81.2!!

We earmarked FT% as one of the BIG reasons SJAX was being dumped so cheap. Some readers even found him sitting on their FA wire. What a grab!

So far so good I'd say. Buying low and selling high is a proven method to stack your team with studs and dominate your league. Like I said I'll post the updates for some of the Sell Highs including Pierce, Melo and Deng. Until then, if you landed one or more of these guys (and we didn't even go over Salmons, what a payoff there too!) pat yourself on the back for a job well done.