Report card time! We don't learn anything if we don't check up on the choices we've made so far and see how those trades have panned out thus far. I dug in and went back to four of the earliest BUY LOW candidates we profiled. Took a look at their numbers at that time, and we'll look at their numbers now. Before we get into the details, I just want to reiterate a few things.
First things first, when I issue out a Buy Low on a player, it means that player is playing BELOW THEIR POTENTIAL. By targeting this player in the right deal, you aim to get him at a value that is below what they are really worth. This is how you stack your team with solid players. I can't tell you how many people, in the comments section of this blog, told me repeatedly how bad they just wanted to ditch Caron Butler or Amare Stoudemire in November. THESE are the people we target in a trade.
BUT it's ALL about WHO you deal to them in the trade. For instance, I dealt Jason Thompson to get Caron Butler, score! However if you rolled over and dealt Paul Pierce to get Butler, well that's a steep price to pay and really misses the whole idea behind a Buy Low. The owner of these players is dying to just cut loose. The BEST time to target them is IMMEDIATELY after the target player has a poor game.
This is what Buy Low is all about. Most of the time it works, sometimes it doesn't, but so long as we win on 75% of the deals, we're golden. In the next post we'll go through some of the Sell High calls too. OK on to the numbers:
Caron Butler
We issued the call to Buy Low in the first post of this blog, around December 1st. Caron's numbers pre and post that choice are as follows:
CAT PRE POST
PTS 16.4 17.5
REB 7 6.6
STL 1.3 1.8
FG% 41% 45%
I'm only posting the relevant changes. As you can see, Caron went from a sub par player right back into being a worthy contributor. Moreover, he's just starting to heat up and things should get better even from here.
Amare Stoudemire
We issued the call on Amare at around the same time. Amare would've been a HUGE payoff if you could snag him, check it out.
CAT PRE POST
PTS 19.2 21.9
REB 7.1 11.4
WOW, unfortunately I didn't get Amare on my squad. His owner just wouldn't budge. I know a bunch of you all did, so SOUND OF IF YA HEAR ME! Again, the rest of his numbers didn't change much so I'm just posting the important ones.
Derrick Rose
Rose we targeted as a great fill in for PG if you missed out on one of the big 3. He was IMMENSELY cheap early on, and really had a nice payoff as well. Check it out:
CAT PRE POST
PTS 15.8 21.5!!!
AST 5.3 6.1!!!
TO 3.1 2.4
Rose has really turned it on of late, particularly in his last outing. What a great return on investment! Sometimes you just don't notice this stuff til it hits you in the face.
Ok we have one last guy, who unfortunately might've just gotten injured. That is Stephen Jackson who we targeted shortly after his trade to Charlotte. We earmarked this as a good deal for him, a great place to land. Check it out:
Stephen Jackson
CAT PRE POST
PTS 19.2 21.5
FT% 65.4 81.2!!
We earmarked FT% as one of the BIG reasons SJAX was being dumped so cheap. Some readers even found him sitting on their FA wire. What a grab!
So far so good I'd say. Buying low and selling high is a proven method to stack your team with studs and dominate your league. Like I said I'll post the updates for some of the Sell Highs including Pierce, Melo and Deng. Until then, if you landed one or more of these guys (and we didn't even go over Salmons, what a payoff there too!) pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
35 comments:
My Bosh for CP3 trade was declined. He didn't counter. Should I offer something else or leave it alone? Monta, AI, and Q Rich for Harris, J.Rich, and Beasley was declined as well. He also didn't make a counter. Should I make another offer or just forget it?
I'd email the owner of CP3 and try to nail down why he declined. He might need a little more to get the deal done, like adding in Q Rich. See what he says
My Dirk plus Aldridge for CP3 was declined should i try to offer something else or just take that this guy isnt keen on trading CP
whos a good 3 point shooter that i can buy low or might be in FA? i really need 3s i am being dominated in them every week.
crackers one that may be on the wire or could be received easily in a 2 for 2 trade since he'll be valued very little is peja stojakovic another guy you might not think about and will almost definitely be on the wire is quentin richardson whose been pretty effective from the three point line (and even just hit 7-7 last game) for the heat
JSR, you need to email him directly. That was a boss offer u made. Many of my earlier posts would help u dealing with stubborn mgrs.
Kermit, love the name by the way. I highlight peja in my 'way downtown specialist' post, read it. Also think about John salmons n Stephen Jackson as cheap sources of treys. Good luck!
thanks i just picked up Qrich
no problem, glad to help :D
Hey thief my sauce is
points- 15.24
blocks- .76
steals- 1.03
assits- 4.12
rebounds- 4.53
3pms- .8
My roster is-
Jason Kidd
Stephen Jackson
Jeff Green
Marcus Camby
Mo Williams
Jason Thompson
OJ Mayo
Al Horford
LaMarcus Aldridge
Ron Artest
Dirk Nowitzki
Rodney Stuckey
Emeka Okafor
Any ideas what I can do to improve? I'm in a 10 team H2H league.
What up Al, try movin horford for bargnani. Should do the trick.
my team is:
tony parker
pau gasol
andre miller
luke ridnour
beno udrih
Qrich
melo
rondo
cdr
jason thompson
speights
perkins
marion
any suggestions to get better im in a 12 team league H2H?
JAR, YUP! Cash in Melo, package him with CDR and try for two studs in return. Look at guys like Amare, And KG. Oh and read the Secret Sauce post, it's a big help, as just about any of my readers will tell u. Eye opening.
heres my secret sauce
pts-14.76
blocks-.62
assists-3.36
3s-.5
rebounds-5.6
steals-.9
i've been trying to grab lebron or CP, and all the owners are my friends so email isnt necesary i talk to them every day heres my squad if you have any ideas of your own for who to offer
PG-D-Will
SG-Ray Allen
G-Louis Williams
SF-Gerald Wallace
PF-Dirk Nowitzki
F-Kevin Garnett
C-Chris Kaman
C-LaMarcus Aldridge
Util-Marreese Speights
Util-Chris Duhon
BN-Mike Dunleavy
BN-Kevin Martin
BN-Jose Calderon
Calderon and Kmart are of course injured so thats why there down there on the bench, and are probably worth much less in trades
Hey thief! this guy might want Pau Gasol for Amare. should i consider?
Hey Thief, none of the trades went through. Do you have any other ideas on players I can maybe target? Here's my team and sauce again.
Here is my team again.
starters:
Monta Ellis
Allen Iverson
Rashard Lewis
Al Horford
Chris Bosh
starters sauce:
pts= 18.3
ast= 3.0
reb= 6.7
stl= 1.0
blk= .6
Bench:
Kyle Lowry
Daniel Gibson
Wilson Chandler
J.R. Smith
Quentin Richardson
Shawn Marion
Carl Landry
Ben Wallace
Bench Sauce:
pts= 10.6
ast= 1.9
reb= 5.0
stl= .9
blk= .6
hey thief!
i messaged you a couple days earlier and u recommended going after a big who can shoot 3s
my sauce
3ptm-.99
pts-16.64
reb-6.6
ast-5.5
stl-1.05
blks-.71
i was offered kidd and hawes for westbrook and garnett
im thinking of counteroffering garnett and westbrook for kidd and murphy
am i thievin?
danny don't give pau for amar'e pau is a much better fantasy player;
lohome garnett and westbrook for kidd and murphy is definitely a lot better than the previous trade
What's up Thief. Dalembert just hit the wire in my league and I really feel like my team could use a back up big like him. Earlier I picked up Pryz over Dalembert only because I have Brand on my Roster. Pryz was since dropped.
PG: Rondo, D.Will, Lou Will
SG: Wade, B.Gordon, Salmons
SF: Butler, Deng
PF: Nowitzki, Garnett
C: B.Lopez, Brand
Dunleavy is my 13th guy the only one I see dropping for him. What do you think?
Love your site Thief, just found it yesterday, I'm in a 10 team H2H league.
My Sauce:
Points - 19.19
Assists - 3.71
Boards - 6.52
Treys - 1.24
Steals - .97
Blocks - .68
My Squad
Arenas
Stuckey
Davis
Carter
Granger
Thompson
Duncan
Z Randolph
Ariza
Harrington
Hughes
Dunleavy
McGrady
Salmons
Any moves I can make to enhance my team, I lead my league in treys and steals, last in turnovers and field goal percentage, competitive in the rest of the categories, thanks Thief
thief i just got offered this trade: rondo for landry and stephen curry landry will be back soon? im giving away rondo and my sauce is listed above from before, would this enhance my team or make it worse?
Quick note: Dampier is also on the waiver. Him and Dalembert are the two best bigs with Chris Anderson behind them.
JSR, you're short on boards, blocks and treys. Thus I'd try to move Melo for Dirk, can u make it happen?
Kermit, dood you made about as boss of an offer as you can for CP3? If you talk to these guys, why not ask them what it would take? I suggest reading the post on trade execution, it should help a lot.
Danny, I don't know that you gain all that much in the deal, but personally I prefer Amare. Does he want Pau badly? Can we get him to pay up a little more in the deal?
Y4, I'm out of ideas for ya bro. 16 offers inside of two days is roughly my limit LOL ;)
LoHo, LOVE THAT DEAL. INK IT HAUS, hits the nail right on the head!
Kermit, you're right on brosam. I'd love to see him snag a little more than Amare in the deal (they're even to me), to be truly thievin. The other trade from LoHo is a no brainer. Good lookin out homes.
RW, no rush grabbin Sammy D, he's not goin anywhere. Let's work a 2-1 deal, ya dig?
XAND1, you need blocks bro and ANYTHING that can involve Danny Granger would be a bonus. I just don't like his injury. Maybe KG or Amare? Work in a bench player if need be.
JSR, make it MUCH worse. Rondo is a STUD and I'm not just sayin that cause he plays for my Celts. You simply can't get his value in a deal, especially the steals. Walk away
RW, Dampier first, then Sammy D, then Andersen. Work the 2-1 Trade Wire!!
Sorry for the delay guys, was out watching a movie. I'll be around all night tho!
Hey Thief,
I've got a couple questions about players for you.
First of all Dahntay Jones. Is he a good pickup off of waiver wires. Mine is pretty thin in a 12 team h2h with 15 rostered players on each team. He had a great november but now has dropped off in december. I'd be dropping steve blake (who i have for 3ptm). I'd be low in 3ptm but I figure dahntay could be extra juice for a 2-1 trade later on or something. Do you think he's going to get back to playing like he was?
Kevin Love is having a great start to the season. Do you think he is a good sell high candidate? And what type of player would you be looking to get in return for him?
Thanks,
Adam
Adam, I wouldn't drop Blake until we get clarification on who is leaving the Blazers and where they are going. If Blake moves to Indiana or Miami or somethin like that, AND get's the starting gig, he's gonna become gold.
YES Kevin Love is a GREAT Sell High, so long as we get value. Go for the jugular, see if you can knock down Jamison or Big Al Jefferson to get the deal done (don't be afraid to use Blake or someone like that in a 2-1 to get this deal done). Good Luck!
hey, so this is whats good
My team:
lou williams
aaron brooks
brandon jennings
rajon rondo
danny granger
caron butler
martell webster
emeka okafor
ersan elyasova
marcus beasley
john salmons
lamarcus aldridge
devin harris
ben wallace
stephen jackson
tyson chandler
pts: 16.275
3's: 1.125
rebs: 5.475
Asts: 3.483
Stls: 1.292
Blks: .567
since the guy didnt accept neither of my trades with granger. Should I just stay put, and hope granger goes gold again and try to trade someone else like jennings. What do you think?
Thanks a lot as always.
Pavel, keep workin Granger offers haus. Keep workin em. I do NOT like the way his injury is goin.
im thinking of dropping joel pryzbilla for sammy D
and anthony randolph for ersan ilyaslova...i lose blocks in this move tho
my team is low in 3s asts and blocks...
still waiting on the other owner to reply to the kg and westbrook for kidd and murphy deal
should i make those waiver moves?
Loho, no rush, they aren't goin anywhere. Work the 2-1 offers for now.
good point...i can add either randolph or pryzbilla to make it a 3 for 2 deal if he wont budge
ok. how about this
the dude that has a poor team has al jefferson, amare, horford, duhon and kevin martin
how about
granger+beasley for amare and kmart?
i dunno man, what do you think (my team is above, a couple of posts away)?
hey thief got a trade offer what do u think?
i give joe johnson and chris kaman
i get andrew bynum,danny granger, and brandon jennings
i really hate giving up joe johnson but i feel like i am getting a decent amount in return what do u think? currently i have no injured players
Pavel, ayooooo, ink it bro! I like the value u get from gimpy granger.
WB, I wouldn't deal for granger, I font like that injury, but of you're gonna, this deal is ok.
ok thief in one of my other leagues i got this offer i really like but i am guessing u arent gonan lol
i give brandon roy and brandon jennings
i get david west and kevin love and john salmons
i lose a little in assists but i seem to gain everywhere else. i feel like this is a solid trade cuz salmons and west are slumping and i feel like jennings number will descend once redd gets his rhythm back
well let me know
WB, love the deal if you need depth. If you have a guy that's in your starting lineup that you can replace with Salmons because he is better, then you're golden. But if you won't be able to take advantage of Salmons production, it doesn't make sense to do the deal. Ya dig?
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